Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Top 700 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.10
The fantasy fallout of the Nolan Jones trade, plus more on Justin Martinez's elite fantasy upside.
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Nolan Jones (#348, 30 trade value).
Nolan Jones being traded back to the Cleveland Guardians is a great real-life move for a Guardians club that needed outfield reinforcements and was somewhat lacking in power hitters, even before Josh Naylor was traded during the offseason.
It is not so great for Jones’ long-term dynasty value.
Mainly, due to, you know, the ballpark switch.
Colorado’s Coors Field, unsurprisingly has the top overall park factor in terms of ballparks in the last three seasons, per Statcast. They’re also in the top 10 (seventh to be exact) in park factor for home runs during the same span, also per Statcast.
Cleveland’s Progressive Field is… not so hitter-friendly.
Only three Major League ballparks, the cavernous venues in Seattle, Tampa Bay and San Diego, had a lower overall park factor, per Statcast, in that span.
Cleveland’s home ballpark was also near the bottom of the pack in terms of home run park factor during that span. Per Statcast data, only four stadiums (those in Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Oakland and San Francisco) had lower park factors for home runs.
The home run data in particular isn’t great for a power hitter in Jones, who strikes out at such a high rate. His Major League strikeout rate is at 30.4% in 815 plate appearances.
The 26-year-old was excellent in 2023, hitting .297 with a .389 on-base percentage, a .362 xwOBA, 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 424 plate appearances. He added a .245 ISO and a 137 wRC+ during that span, not to mention a 15.7% barrel rate.
But there were some statistical causes for worry, namely a .401 BABIP and a 29.7% strikeout rate.
Jones struggled mightily in 2024, hitting just .227 with a .321 on-base percentage, three home runs and five stolen bases in 297 plate appearances for the Rockies. His strikeout (12.5% and 12.1% respectively) and walk rates (29.7% and 30.6% respectively) were fairly similar in both years, but he saw his barrel rate plummet to 5.9% last year while seeing his ground ball rate spike from 43.8% in 2023 to 52.1% in 2024.
Not good.
If he can recapture some of his old form at the plate, or at least make a bit more loud contact, there’s a fairly decent fantasy floor from a counting stat standpoint potentially hitting near Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan and Travis Bazzana long-term, but the switch to Progressive Field certainly doesn’t help his overall ceiling.
Zac Veen (#273, 32 trade value).
Realistically speaking, the Rockies probably had room in the outfield – where Brenton Doyle is the only established and entrenched starting option – and designated hitter to get Jones and Veen regular plate appearances, give breakout hitter Hunter Goodman a few starts when he isn’t catching and still start Doyle every day.
But now with Jones being traded, they definitely have more than enough long-term room in the outfield to give Veen an extended look.
That won’t happen right away, as the former first-round pick was optioned to Triple-A despite a productive spring in which he hit .279 with a .353 on-base percentage, two home runs, nine stolen bases, a .365 wOBA and a 115 wRC+ in his first 68 plate appearances.
With potential impact fantasy upside due to his ability to steal bases at a high rate (he had 21 in 65 minor league games) and the hitter-friendly nature of Coors Field, Veen has decidedly above-average, borderline elite fantasy upside if everything clicks.
Justin Martinez (#180, 37 trade value).
Just who the Arizona Diamondbacks’ closer is in 2024 remains to be seen. Martinez, AJ Puk and Kevin Ginkel could all see save chances.
But, assuming Martinez pitches anything like he did in 2024, the fact that the 23-year-old just signed a five-year extension with the club means the reliever could very well be the Diamondbacks closer of the future. Or the team’s closer in 2026 and onwards. Or the team’s closer in 2025 onwards.
Of course, that’s all purely speculative on my part and it’s possible Martinez purely operates as a very good setup reliever for the entirety of his time in Arizona.
But, he was really good in 2024.
Martinez pitched to a 2.48 ERA and a 2.59 FIP in 72 innings of work last season (64 appearances). He struck out 91 batters while scattering 36 walks, 59 hits and just two home runs during that span, accumulating five pitcher wins, eight saves and seven holds in the process.
I’m usually comparatively not as high on relievers as others, preferring to utilize draft, prospect and trade capital elsewhere while finding undervalued relievers (like Martinez) who develop into elite relievers. It happens all the time. Just look at Martinez and Ryan Walker down the stretch last year.
Just how good was Martinez last year? Among pitchers with at least 100 plate appearances against them, here’s how many had both a strikeout rate above 29% (as Martinez did at 29.5%) and a barrel rate below 3.0% (as Martinez did at 2.8%).
Justin Martinez.
Drew Rassmussen.
Kris Bubic.
End of list.
Rassmussen and Bubic, as you might have heard, will both be pitching out of their team’s respective rotations this year.
Even if you expand those statistical parameters to include a strikeout rate above 29% and a barrel rate below 3.5%, the list only adds Robert Garcia, Bryan King Porter Hodge and Edwin Uceta.
Increase the barrel rate to anything below 4.0% and the list only adds Ryan Helsley.
Helsley, like Martinez, didn’t have the lowest walk rate in the world, but we’ve seen how impactful the 30-year-old can be fantasy-wise as a full-time closer. Taking the saves out of the equation, and here’s a brief look at what Martinez and Helsley did from an underlying metrics standpoint:
Ryan Helsley in 2024:
.212 xBA
33.5% chase rate
36.1% whiff rate
29.7% strikeout rate
8.6% walk rate
3.7% barrel rate
35.4% hard-hit rate
37.2% ground ball rate
Justin Martinez in 2024:
.216 xBA
30.5% chase rate
34.5% whiff rate
29.5% strikeout rate
11.7% walk rate
2.8% barrel rate
31.8% hard-hit rate
60.3% ground ball rate
Clearly, the walks are not ideal, but Martinez’s ability to erase a great many of them with grounders helps immensely.
If he can see the lion’s share of saves long-term in Arizona, he could push for being among the top five pitchers at his position fantasy-wise.
At least in regards to the former, that could be a real possibility, even if it’s not this season. Both Puk and Ginkel are free agents after the 2026 season, per Spotrac.
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially, if you’re having to cut someone, it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
Also a quick note on prospects:
Proximity matters. Upside is obviously king here, but proximity to the Majors matters here as well with prospects, at least from a fantasy standpoint. It can be a bit of a tie-breaker with prospects with similar upside but at different minor league levels. Furthermore, the farther away a prospect is from the Majors, the more it impacts their fantasy trade value.
Of course, that’s not going to have much of a difference with elite prospects in the low minors like Ethan Salas or Max Clark, but it’s why some prospects who aren’t necessarily in the upper echelon of fantasy prospects, may have a lower trade value number in dynasty formats than a lower ceiling player already in the Majors who is guaranteed to provide MLB (and fantasy) production at least in the coming years.
