Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Top 700 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.09
A 1,400 word deep dive into Yandy Diaz's long-term dynasty value & recent performance.
I will admit, I did not set out to write nearly 1,400 words on Yandy Diaz and (in places) the rest of the Tampa Bay Rays lineup for this column. But here we are, with a 1,400+ word deep dive and comprehensive dynasty breakdown of each of the following regarding the first baseman and the Rays lineup
Diaz’s dynasty trade value moving forward.
Whether or not the 2023 season was a statistical outlier for the infielder.
A deep dive into Diaz’s batted ball data in that respect.
A look at the Rays’ lineup now and later.
And perhaps most crucially, whether now might be the time to trade Yandy Diaz in dynasty formats.
But first, before we get to all that, the updated top 700!
(A quick note, if you’re having trouble reading the table in full in the Substack app, it can be viewed in full either in the email or in a web browser.)
If you have any questions about draft prep, strategies, the best sleepers, players to avoid or the tips you could use to win your draft and your league, becoming a paid subscriber grants you access to my daily fantasy help chat where I’ll be answering all of your fantasy baseball questions every weekday, whether it’s redraft or dynasty, or during the offseason, draft season, the regular season or the fantasy playoffs. The main goal of this Substack? To help you win your fantasy leagues.
Yandy Diaz (#394, 29 trade value).
Yandy Diaz’s dynasty trade value might be starting to creep slightly downhill. That’s not to say you should trade him to recoup the very best trade value – his dynasty trade value in a vacuum doesn’t quite warrant that particularly if he’s you’re only quality option at first base.
Still, this is something to track moving forward.
Also, if you get an overwhelming trade offer that features Diaz that either gets you a quality first baseman, or you have a solid replacement waiting, now might not be the worst time to make that trade.
The 33-year-old still made a bunch of hard contact last year, finishing in 89th percentile in hard-hit rate with a 48.7% metric. He also ranked in the 86th percentile or better in strikeout rate (15.3%, 86th percentile), chase rate (22.8%, 88th percentile) and whiff rate (14.2%, 97th percentile), which are all generally very good things when paired with the hard-hit rate.
Except for that Diaz’s ground ball rate – which has been an issue at times, relatively speaking, for his batted ball data in the past – spiked to 55.5%, the highest it’s ever been in a full season.
As such, the infielder hit the ball in the air less last year, with a 17.8% fly ball rate which was his lowest since 2019. Perhaps a bit unsurprisingly, his barrel rate dropped off too, dropping from 9.5% in 2023 to 7.6% last year.
When Diaz’s ground ball rate isn’t so high and he’s getting the ball in the air more (along with more barrels more often) there’s the potential for seasons like he had in 2023 with all the consistent, hard contact he makes.
The Rays infielder hit .330 with a .410 on-base percentage, 22 home runs, 95 runs scored and 78 RBI in 600 plate appearances.
When Diaz hits the ball into the ground more often and his barrel rate drops off a bit, you get seasons like he had last year.
The 33-year-old hit .281 with a .341 on-base percentage, 14 home runs, 55 runs scored and 65 RBI in 21 more plate appearances than he had in 2023 (or 621 to be exact) despite serving as the Rays’ primary leadoff hitter both years.
The difference, really is that of a great fantasy season and one that is more decidedly good (and certainly not one to be overlooked) but also not one warranting a place among the elite fantasy options in the league or at his position.
Now, admittedly, the runs scored and RBI might’ve been a product of the Rays lineup around Diaz. Tampa Bay finished in the bottom third in the sport in terms of both wRC+ and runs scored last season. In fact, they only outscored the White Sox.
Back in 2023, the Rays sported MLB’s fourth-highest scoring lineup and finished behind only Atlanta (125) with a 117 wRC+.
Nowhere was that more evident than in the bottom third of Tampa Bay’s lineup, something that (along with the decrease in home runs by Diaz) significantly hampered his RBI totals.
Rays seventh, eighth and ninth hitters logged a 94 wRC+ and a .700 OPS in 2023. Only eight teams got a higher collective wRC+ from their seven, eight and nine hitters. Only nine got a better collective OPS from their last three hitters.
This past year in 2024, those numbers were 72 and .589 respectively.
Per an article from Marc Topkin in The Tampa Bay Times on February 23, “the Rays have given some thought to dropping Diaz in the order to increase opportunities for him to drive in runs.”
That’d certainly help the Tampa Bay infielder’s RBI chances, though it may come with a trade off slightly fewer plate appearances and chances to get on base. Though considering Tampa Bay’s external lineup additions were largely confined to catcher Danny Jansen and infielder Ha-Seong Kim (who will begin the year on the injured list), more RBI chances in lieu of a few more plate appearances might work out for Diaz’s long-term fantasy ceiling.
Speaking of which, though it’s both fair to wonder if the 2023 season was a statistical anomaly and with the Rays lineup can consistently provide Diaz with so many RBI opportunities. We’ll start with the second one first.
Tampa Bay added Jansen and Kim, and it’s reasonable to expect Junior Caminero (and eventually, Tre’ Morgan, Xavier Isaac, Carson Williams and Brayden Taylor) to play regular roles. But will the Rays end up trading Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel and even Diaz himself as they have done with so many veterans in the past?
Even with so many talented youngsters on the way in the coming years, is a consistently good lineup a surefire thing? Because while the Rays have been excellent at times from a run-scoring standpoint, they’ve also finished all over the map in terms of runs-scored rankings thanks to a (somewhat) ever-changing lineup.
Rays Lineups Ranks In Runs Scored
2024: 29th
2023: 3rd
2022: 19th
2021: 2nd
And now to the 2023 season.
Yandy Diaz was awesome that year at the plate that year, posting both a lower ground ball rate, not to mention fewer pop-ups (and more barrels).
Yandy Diaz in 2021: 52.1 GB%, 6.0 pop up%, 7.0 barrel%, 110 wRC+
Yandy Diaz in 2022: 50.0 GB%, 6.0 pop up%, 4.8 barrel%, 145 wRC+
Yandy Diaz in 2023: 52.2 GB%, 3.2 pop up%, 9.5 barrel%, 163 wRC+
Yandy Diaz in 2024: 55.5 GB%, 5.5 pop up%, 7.6 barrel%, 120 wRC+
He’s still probably a quality fantasy option, all things considered, but 2023 is very much looking like a bit of an outlier year where his overall production and his surface-level production.
If someone in your league thinks his 2023 production is repeatable, at least from an RBI and runs scored standpoint with the addition of Caminero and Diaz moving down in the lineup and is willing to give up a player in the top, say, 280 for him, I would seriously consider that type of deal.
Though if you’re a contending team, much depends on your other first-base options.
If you’re rebuilding, trade Diaz and play the waiver streaming game with first basemen you can get without burning any FAAB, or else take a flier on a player like Spencer Torkelson or Tyler Soderstrom in a smaller trade.
Because, it should also be mentioned that it’s also fair to wonder about Diaz’s fit with the Rays long-term. The team did pick up his 2026 option and added a vesting option for the 2027 season recently, but top prospect Tre’ Morgan also brings a potential impact glove at first base, is a consensus top-100 prospect and could hit for a fairly high average on a regular basis in the Majors.
Morgan finished 2024 at Double-A and is hitting .300 with an .841 OPS, a 123 wRC+ and a home run in 23 plate appearances this spring. That’s not say he’s going to suddenly take over at first base on Opening Day for the Rays, but he’s not too far away from the Majors, all things considered.
At that point, does Diaz get traded like so many Rays’ veterans before him? This is all entirely speculative mind you. Though it is worth noting that after playing both corner infield spots in years past, the veteran didn’t play third base at all in 2024 and made just six appearances (31 innings) there in 2023.
The last time Diaz played third base for a significant number of innings was in 2022 when he logged 839 innings there. And the results weren’t great from a fielding metrics standpoint, with a -14 DRS at the position.
Would the Rays play Diaz at designated hitter full-time with two top first-base prospects in Morgan and Isaac close to the Majors? These are all fair questions to ask with Diaz’s long-term fantasy value. Another one: does he get so many fantasy-friendly plate appearances near the top of the lineup if he’s traded to a deeper lineup?
In short, if you get a quality offer for Diaz, now might be the time to trade the infielder, especially if you have another option at first base.
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially, if you’re having to cut someone, it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
Also a quick note on prospects:
Proximity matters. Upside is obviously king here, but proximity to the Majors matters here as well with prospects, at least from a fantasy standpoint. It can be a bit of a tie-breaker with prospects with similar upside but at different minor league levels. Furthermore, the farther away a prospect is from the Majors, the more it impacts their fantasy trade value.
Of course, that’s not going to have much of a difference with elite prospects in the low minors like Ethan Salas or Max Clark, but it’s why some prospects who aren’t necessarily in the upper echelon of fantasy prospects, may have a lower trade value number in dynasty formats than a lower ceiling player already in the Majors who is guaranteed to provide MLB (and fantasy) production at least in the coming years.
