11 Blind Resume Comparisons For Starting Pitchers

Finding Sleepers Who Will Help You Win Your League.

Hello, hello and welcome to second part of the blind resume comparison series.

This time around, after focusing on hitters before, we’re looking at starting pitchers today.

I’m pretty on record as being not as high on starting pitching in general. Or rather, I’m all for the strategy of waiting on starting pitchers until later in drafts, building an elite lineup and then going for significant volume from a starting pitcher standpoint in head-to-head leagues. The strategy works.

The Draft Strategy That Will Win You Your League

However, regardless of what your league format is, the nature of the starting pitcher position in actual, real-life baseball means there are plenty of options out there to build out a quality, playoff-worthy fantasy rotation.

And while the elite starters are, just that, elite, there a plenty of breakout pitchers every year who significantly outperform their ADP and become league winners. Just look at Garrett Crochet, Jared Jones, Paul Skenes and Spencer Schwellenbach last year (among many others).

Similar to the hitters’ column, there are differences in places where starter’s innings totals are concerned. There might be a bit of a gap between some of the starters. Still, all of the pitchers listed in the column threw at least 100 innings pitched last season. In other words, more than enough of a sample size to determine if they’re legitimate or not.

Furthermore, this isn’t necessarily advocating for reaching for some of these more underrated starters in drafts either. It’s more of an exercise to help you find pitchers who will ultimately help you win your fantasy league this year.

With all that in mind, here’s a look at nine blind resume comparisons for starters to help you find impact sleepers later on in drafts. Just as with the hitters’ blind resume column, we’ll start with a bit of a proof of concept before diving into the rest of the comparisons.

All stats are from 2024. All ADP data is via NFBC.

Pitcher A

• 2.91 ERA

• 3.25 FIP

• 24.0 K%

• 7.8 BB%

• 1.11 WHIP

• .276 BABIP

• 176.1 IP

• 67.51 ADP*

Pitcher B

• 2.94 ERA

• 3.58 FIP

• 24.3 K%

• 6.4 BB%

• 0.98 WHIP

• .237 BABIP

• 180.1 IP

• 85.85 ADP*

Pitcher A is the Houston Astros’ Frmber Valdez.

Pitcher B is Seattle Mariners’ Bryce Miller.

If there’s any starter comparison that is representative of not drafting starters early, it might be this one.

Valdez and Miller are both frontline starters on their respective American League West teams. If their past track records are anything to go on, both should be very good next season.

And while Miller’s FIP was nearly a third of a run higher, their underlying metrics were eerily similar in places.

(Valdez collected 15 pitcher wins and 17 quality starts last year. Miller’s tallies in those specific statistical categories were 12 and 18 respectively).

And yet, if you were drafting today, you could draft Miller two whole rounds after Valdez. Two rounds where you could draft a pair of potential impact hitters. Among the many hitters with ADPs between Valdez’ and Miller’s include: Brent Rooker, Kyle Schwarber, Lawrence Butler, Salvador Perez, Willson Contreras and Seiya Suzuki. Extrapolate those settings to include five picks before Valdez’s ADP and you can add Tesocar Hernandez to that list as well.

Should we do another example? Yeah, let’s do another example.

Pitcher A

• 3.55 ERA

• 3.60 FIP

• 24.9 K%

• 8.7 BB%

• 1.28 WHIP

• .307 BABIP

• 170 IP

• 111.77 ADP*

Pitcher B

• 3.90 ERA

• 3.53 FIP

• 24.8 K%

• 8.9 BB%

• 1.42 WHIP

• 0.340 BABIP

• 166.1 IP

• 209.38 ADP*

Ok, so maybe this one is actually the best representation of why you should wait on pitchers in drafts, and also the type of upside that can be found later on in said drafts where starting pitchers are concerned.

Because just like a well-constructed spot-the-difference type of deal with two pictures, it’s hard to spot a significant difference here once you throw the ERA out the window and look away from the ADP momentarily.

Pitcher A another member of the Astros rotaiton. This time it’s Hunter Brown.

Pitcher B is the Washington Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore.

Bringing the ADP back into focus, the vast chasm between the two starters might be the most crucial bit of info here. Well, that and how good Gore was last season.

The 26-year-old ranked in the 65th percentile or better in whiff rate (28.6%, 74th percentile), strikeout rate (24.8%, 65th percentile) and barrel rate (6.8%, 69th percentile) last season. He was one of just 11 qualified starters to achieve that feat last year.

Elsewhere, Gore logged a whiff rate of 32% or higher on each of his non-four seam fastball offerings:

• Curveball: 19.6% usage rate, 34.0% whiff rate

• Slider: 14.3% usage rate, 32.3% whiff rate

• Changeup: 9.3% usage rate, 51.2% whiff rate

• Sweeper: 1.6% usage rate, 41.7% whiff rate

His ADP might be low now, but the Washington Nationals hurler looks on track to significantly outperform it this year. With his ability to miss bats coupled with his strong showing in 2024, the former third-overall pick is one of the more intriguing late-round starters to consider drafting this year.

Here’s a look at a few of the other starting pitchers who’ll be mentioned/included in the remaining nine blind resume comparisons:

• Paul Skenes

• Dylan Cease

• George Kirby

• Aaron Nola

• Justin Steele

• Logan Webb

• Zac Gallen

• And a number of other frontline fantasy starters, plus…

• A bunch of potential league-winner sleepers who’ll help you win your league.