Fantasy Baseball 2025 Redraft Top 500 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.08
More on Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Corbin, Alex Verdugo and Jose Altuve.
Draft season is very much here and yet some players still have surprisingly low ADPs, at least relative to their fantasy upside, track record and recent performances.
That’s where we’re starting today’s column, with a fantasy ace who is being drafted far too late in drafts.
But before that, a top 500 that’s seen significant movement as of late due to a number of injuries and late-spring training roster decisions.
(A quick note, if you’re having trouble reading the table in full in the Substack app, it can be viewed in full either in the email or in a web browser.)
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Tyler Glasnow (#32, 94 trade value).
Here’s a number.
36.
36 is the number of pitchers being selected ahead of Tyler Glasnow in drafts right now, per NFBC ADP data.
36.
Now, granted all 36 of those pitchers aren’t just starters. There are a few relievers in that group, nine of them to be exact in Emmanuel Clase, Devin Williams, Ryan Helsey, Raisel Iglesias, Edwin Diaz, Mason Miller, Felix Bautista, Andres Munoz and Jhoan Duran.
Still, even without those nine relievers, the fact that 17 starting pitchers are going ahead of Glasnow in drafts seems like a lot. Like a lot.
And while we can continue to discuss why so many pitchers are being selected ahead of Glasnow in fantasy drafts this spring (the veteran has an overall ADP of 103.67, per NFBC data) further, use that to your advantage to draft Glasnow in the draft’s middle rounds.
Because while the veteran has yet to top 135 innings in a season (he set a new career high with 134 last season) he’s among the league’s best when he’s on the mound.
The 31-year-old finished in the 95th percentile in strikeout rate (32.2%), the 96th percentile in xERA (2.65) and the 93rd percentile in xBA (.195). Overall, he pitched to a 3.49 ERA and a 2.90 FIP in 22 starts spanning 134 innings for the world-champion Dodgers last season, racking up nine pitcher wins and 14 quality starts in the process.
Put slightly differently? He’s a fantasy ace. A fantasy ace you might be able to draft after the seventh round.
Alex Verdugo (#411, 11 trade value).
Verdugo recently signing with Atlanta gives the National League East team another veteran outfield option, but it makes this a potentially unideal fantasy situation in Atlanta’s outfield – at least once Verdugo is ready for the season after just signing and once Ronald Acuna Jr. is back.
Michael Harris II and Jurickson Profar are entrenched at the team’s other two outfield spots, though Profar has missed time recently in spring training games due to a bone bruise in his wrist. Marcell Ozuna is at designated hitter. And then for that third outfield spot, you’ve got some combination of Jarred Kelenic, Bryan De La Cruz and (once he’s ready to start in the Majors) Verdugo.
Unless one of them separates themselves, this could be a situation where neither of the three are worth starting in fantasy leagues given the potential inconsistency in playing time.
Verdugo hit .233 with a .291 on-base percentage, 13 home runs and a pair of stolen bases in 621 plate appearances for the New York Yankees last season. His 83 wRC+ was his lowest in a Major League season with at least 220 plate appearances and while Verdugo struck out less than 15.5% of the time in 600 or more plate appearances for the third straight season, he turned in just a .302 xwOBA and a .320 xwOBAcon.
Patrick Corbin (#446, 9 trade value).
Another late addition in spring training, the 34-year-old Corbin joined the Texas Rangers on a one-year deal. He most recently pitched to a 5.62 ERA and a 4.41 FIP in 32 starts spanning 174.2 innings for the Washington Nationals. It was the lowest FIP Corbin had posted in a full season since the 2019 campaign.
The veteran also added 139 strikeouts compared to 54 walks and 25 home runs allowed. And while the overall numbers for the season wasn’t ideal, it’s worth noting that Corbin posted a 3.85 FIP in his last 43.2 innings last season (eight starts) from August 16 onwards.
The left-hander recorded pitcher wins in four of those games and allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of those starts. He’s more of a deep league rotation option to start the year, but could be worth a look as a streaming option in the right matchups if he can replicate some of his late-season form.
Jose Altuve (#133, 63 trade value).
One of the more significant fantasy developments, at least from a fantasy standpoint, in the last week, Jose Altuve will reportedly be the Houston Astros’ primary left fielder, per an article from MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart on Wednesday.
McTaggart’s article included the following quote from Astros manager Joe Espada:
“The plan for me right now, based on what I’ve seen, is for him to paly most of his games in left field. … With that said, there’s always changes that could happen based on the roster changing, injuries happening, someone in the Minor League starts getting locked in. Right now, the plan is for him to get most of his starts in left field.”
The veteran hit 295 with a .350 on-base percentage, a .316 xwOBA, a 127 wRC+, 20 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 682 plate appearances last season. And while I’m skeptical of Altuve’s production continuing to be elite if his quality of contact metrics from 2024 carry over, outfield eligibility helps stabilize his fantasy floor.
Last season the 34-year-old hit .295 with a .350 on-base percentage, but he logged a .262 xBA, finished in the 48th percentile in xwOBA (.316), the 11th percentile (31.2%) in hard-hit rate and the sixth percentile (37.3%) in chase rate. He’ll still likely put up solid counting stats, but surface-level stat regression could occur if the veteran finishes with such a low xwOBA again.
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially, if you’re having to cut someone, it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
