Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Top 700 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.23

This week: Spencer Strider's elite bat-missing numbers, more on Tyler Holton, plus can Christian Walker bounce back?

Jun 25, 2025

New this week: An in-depth look at Spencer Strider’s 2025 numbers so far, particularly his bat-missing numbers. Plus, more on Tyler Holton in the Tigers bullpen, a breakdown of Christian Walker in his first season with the Astros, and a look at whether the former Diamondbacks slugger can turn things around at the plate.

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Spencer Strider (#32, 73 trade value).

Spencer Strider hasn’t quite returned to the elite levels we saw him reach with regularity earlier in his career. His bat-missing numbers are down a bit, his run prevention numbers are up and the general elite fantasy production hasn’t consistently been back.

Spencer Strider in 2022: 131.2 IP, 2.67 ERA, 1.83 FIP, 38.3 K%, 8.5 BB%, 0.48 HR/9, 15.5 SwStr%, 34.9% whiff rate

Spencer Strider in 2023: 186.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 36.8 K%, 7.6 BB%, 1.06 HR/9, 18.9 SwStr%, 38.6% whiff rate

Spencer Strider in 2025: 37 IP, 3.89 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 29.4 K%, 8.5 BB%, 1.22 HR/9, 15.6% SwStr%, 33.7% whiff rate

And while Strider will likely continue to improve the further he gets away from surgery, despite not being quite as elite as he once was, he’s still been really good from a bat-missing standpoint this season.

Among starters with at least 30 innings of work this season, just 10 have a higher strikeout rate than Strider’s 29.4% metric. Just three have a higher swinging strike rate than the Atlanta hurler’s 15.6% number.

Elsewhere, among full-time starters, just two pitchers have a higher whiff rate – Logan Gilbert and Dylan Cease.

Strider’s numbers might not be elite relative to what he’s done in the past – at least so far this season – but they’re elite compared to what the rest of the league is doing.

That the bat-missing is already back at an elite level so soon in 2025 is extremely promising long-term.

Tyler Holton (#631, 17 trade value).

Last season, Tyler Holton was an impact fantasy reliever for many fantasy managers, pitching to a 2.19 ERA and a 3.17 FIP in 94.1 innings spanning 66 appearances.

One of the league’s best relief pitchers in general, Holton pitched in a variety of roles for the Tigers, serving as an opener, a multi-inning reliever, a high-leverage option and at times a closer.

Overall, the left-hander accumulated seven pitcher wins, eight saves, nine games started and 14 holds in 2024.

He’s still working in a high-leverage role for the Tigers, and despite the team moving away from the pitching chaos strategy that worked so well for them down the stretch, Holton has still started four games this season. He’s reasonably close to securing fantasy eligibility as a starter next year as well in some formats, which is no small thing from a fantasy roster construction standpoint.

Still, Holton hasn’t been quite as effective this year. His ERA is up to 4.58 in 35.1 innings as of the start of play on Tuesday, and the 29-year-old is sporting a 5.00 FIP in those aforementioned 35.1 innings of work.

He’s still limiting walks (with a 5.4% walk rate) and inducing grounders (with a 50.5% ground ball rate) at an above-average rate, but Holton ranks in the 39^th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate so far.

In all those categories but the whiff rate and strikeout rate, he finished in the 82^nd percentile or better last season.

Considering Detroit and A.J. Hinch’s proclivity for mixing and matching in ideal scenarios out of the bullpen, Holton still has long-term fantasy value in leagues where holds are part of the scoring.

Though the down season so far this season certainly doesn’t help, nor does the emergence of fellow multi-inning lefty (and occasional opener) Brant Hurter, as well as the general emergence of Brenan Hanifee and Chase Lee in Detroit’s relief corps.

Christian Walker (#195, 35 trade value).

Can Christian Walker turn things around at the plate? That’s the question.

Long one of the game’s best, and arguably more underrated first baseman, Walker was excellent in 2024, logging a .351 xwOBA, a 13.3% barrel rate and a 48.0% hard-hit rate in 552 plate appearances, all the while posting a 24.3% chase rate and a 24.1% strikeout rate to go with a .251 average, a .335 on-base percentage, 26 home runs, a pair of stolen bases and an .803 OPS.

Over the offseason, Walker signed a three-year deal with the Houston Astros and looked set to benefit from a strong fantasy lineup long-term. Even without Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, the Astros still added Cam Smith and Isaac Paredes to hit alongside Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena and Yainer Diaz.

Long term, that group, plus Jacob Melton and Brice Matthews, should help Walker log solid counting stats, but whether he reaches the numbers he logged in Arizona remains to be seen if the 34-year-old continues to make this type of contact.

Let’s start with the good in terms of the quality of contact (and Walker’s other underlying metrics).

Walker’s 74.1 MPH average bat speed is above-average, the 12.4% barrel rate is good. So too is the 46.3% hard-hit rate. Walker is also hitting more line drives (24.9 LD%) than he has since 2021, all the while incrementally dropping his ground ball rate from 37.9% to 37.8% this season.

Elsewhere, the veteran is also pulling the ball a bit more in the air than he has in a full season.

So all that is good.

What’s not so good is that Walker has seen his whiff rate and chase rate jump notably since last season, all the while making less zone contact. His xwOBA and xwOBAcon have both gone down since last year as well.

Christian Walker in 2024

25.6% whiff rate
24.3% chase rate
82.5% zone contact rate
.351 xwOBA
.408 xwOBAcon

Christian Walker in 2025

28.0% whiff rate
27.4% chase rate
81.2% zone contact rate
.322 xwOBA
.408 xwOBAcon

Add in an average bat speed that’s dropped from 75 MPH to 74.1 MPH from 2024 to 2025 and there’s some reason for concern here about Walker replicating the surface-level production he did in the past.

That’s not to say he won’t have fantasy value in Houston, but the elite fantasy upside at his position might no longer be there.

Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)

Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof, rather, in trades.

While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially, if you’re having to cut someone, it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.

Also, a quick note on prospects:

Proximity matters. Upside is obviously king here, but proximity to the Majors matters here as well with prospects, at least from a fantasy standpoint. It can be a bit of a tie-breaker with prospects with similar upside but at different minor league levels. Furthermore, the farther away a prospect is from the Majors, the more it impacts their fantasy trade value.

Of course, that’s not going to have much of a difference with elite prospects in the low minors like Ethan Salas or Max Clark, but it’s why some prospects who aren’t necessarily in the upper echelon of fantasy prospects, may have a lower trade value number in dynasty formats than a lower ceiling player already in the Majors who is guaranteed to provide MLB (and fantasy) production at least in the coming years.