Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Top 700 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.22
This week: the fantasy impact of the Rafael Devers trade. Plus, better production is coming for Dalton Rushing.
Rafael Devers has been traded to the San Francisco Giants.
It’s a significant deal, with potentially significant fantasy implications. Really, the alternate title to this column is: The Fantasy Impact of the Rafael Devers Trade.
A deeper dive into the Devers deal and what it means for fantasy managers moving forward (plus a look at Dalton Rushing’s early-season numbers) after the new Top 700.
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Rafael Devers (#19, 79 trade value).
Look, Rafael Devers is still going to be an elite hitter for years to come.
That’s what happens when you hit 27 to 38 home runs in your last five seasons and log a career 136 wRC+, not to mention finishing in the 92nd percentile or better in hard-hit rate in each of the last five years, the 87th percentile or barrel rate in each of the last seven (including this year) and the 92nd percentile or better in xwOBA in every year since 2021.
So, you get it, Rafael Devers is good at hitting a baseball.
Really good.
Considering he’s just 28, that’s going to continue to be the case for a while.
And while he remains an elite, top-20 fantasy option moving forward, he moves down a few spots in the rankings (albeit with the same trade value) for now due to the switch in ballparks and general fantasy surroundings.
In Boston, Fenway Park boasted the league’s second-best overall park factor in the last three years, per Statcast data.
San Francisco’s Oracle Park, meanwhile was tied for the second-lowest overall park factor.
Per Statcast, the difference in parks (at least in terms of park factors) in total is as follows:
Fenway Park:
Overall park factor: 105
Park factor for home runs: 90
Park factor for doubles: 122
Oracle Park:
Overall park factor: 96
Park factor for home runs: 80
Park factor for doubles: 102
So yeah, that’s a stark difference. And while Devers’ expected home run number for his career (202) is actually the same as it is at both Fenway Park and Oracle Park, also per Statcast data, it’s just not the most ideal switch from a fantasy standpoint.
Elsewhere, there’s an argument to be made that this hurts Devers’ long-term RBI opportunities.
Really, he’s going to log above-average RBI numbers regardless of what lineup he’s in given his propensity for regular loud contact, but moving from the Red Sox lineup to the Giants lineup – ballpark aside – might mean the difference between above-average and elite RBI totals. At least, from this vantage point in time trying to map out future seasons based on current and future Major Leaguers.
Because while the Giants are set up reasonably well long-term with an elite hitting prospect in Bryce Eldridge and quality hitters like Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee and Willy Adames, collectively, they don’t have anywhere near the ceiling long-term that Boston’s core of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Alex Bregman (if he doesn’t opt out of his contract) have.
Really, don’t worry, Devers will still be elite. His quality of contact numbers will still be excellent, but this switch in ballparks and lineups long-term moves him behind a trio of similarly elite hitters in Riley Greene, James Wood and Jackson Merrill in the rankings.
More Fantasy Impact of the Devers Trade
Boston, as mentioned above, has more than enough lineup depth to ensure that things don’t crater long-term without Devers (and even Bregman if he opts out). Amongst all those names, we didn’t even mention Carlos Narvaez, who’s hitting .282 with a .366 on-base percentage, six home runs and a 130 wRC+ this year in 213 plate appearances.
Now, granted, the fantasy ceilings for the likes of Mayer, Anthony, Campell, Duran, Abreu and Narvaez won’t be as high without an elite hitter like Devers hitting in a key spot in the order, but they should be fine long-term. Still, this type of deal as the potential to dent their fantasy ceilings slightly moving forward.
Elsewhere, for all the reasons that a switch from Boston to San Francisco might not be ideal from a park standpoint, Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks (if he’s in the rotation long-term) moving to Fenway Park long-term isn’t the best situation for a pitcher, especially moving from a pitcher-friendly park in San Francisco.
Dalton Rushing (#74, 61 trade value).
I’m admittedly probably higher on Rushing than most. That’s not to say others aren’t, but Rushing brings unique upside as a backup catcher (and thus with catcher eligibility) as well as outfield eligibility. And all that with the long-term backdrop of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ elite lineup.
But he’s struggled a bit in the Majors this season, albiet in a smaller sample size.
The 24-year-old is posting just a .570 OPS, a 62 wRC+ and a 52.4% strikeout rate so far this season, better production is coming. That’s obviously true long-term, but this year as well.
First and foremost, we’re dealing with a 42 plate appearance sample size, which, you know, is on the smaller side of things.
Furthermore, Rushing struck out more than 22% of the time just once at a minor league stop. That was in 2023 in 381 plate appearances at Advanced-A when he struck out 24.4% of the time.
But looking past the strikeouts, there’s also some encouraging underlying data from the Dodgers catcher.
And granted, it’s still a smaller sample size, but the 24-year-old has logged a 23.7% chase rate, a 73.1 MPH average bat speed and an 11.8% barrel rate so far.
Admittedly, the barrel rate might be slightly impacted by the elevated strikeout rate and thus fewer batted ball events. But the longer Rushing continues to log strong barrel rate, chase rate and average bat speed metrics, his production is going to improve considerably. The counting stats will too, especially in such a strong Dodgers lineup.
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially, if you’re having to cut someone, it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
Also a quick note on prospects:
Proximity matters. Upside is obviously king here, but proximity to the Majors matters here as well with prospects, at least from a fantasy standpoint. It can be a bit of a tie-breaker with prospects with similar upside but at different minor league levels. Furthermore, the farther away a prospect is from the Majors, the more it impacts their fantasy trade value.
Of course, that’s not going to have much of a difference with elite prospects in the low minors like Ethan Salas or Max Clark, but it’s why some prospects who aren’t necessarily in the upper echelon of fantasy prospects, may have a lower trade value number in dynasty formats than a lower ceiling player already in the Majors who is guaranteed to provide MLB (and fantasy) production at least in the coming years.
Last week’s rankings and analysis:
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