Fantasy Baseball 2025 Redraft Top 500 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.21

This week: An in-depth look at Charlie Morton and Marcus Semien, both of whom have bounced back recently.

In this week’s Top 500 update, a look at Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Charlie Morton and Texas Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien. Morton has been much more effective on the mound as of late, while Semien has bounced back at the plate after a slow start.

More on Morton’s recent run of form and if Semien can sustain his recent production after the Top 500.

(A quick note, if you’re having trouble reading the table in full in the Substack app, it can be viewed in full either in the email or in a web browser.)

If you have any questions about trade offers, the waiver wire, last minute start/sit options, roster construction strategies, or anything specific to your fantasy team, becoming a paid subscriber grants you access to my daily fantasy help chat where I’ll be answering all of your fantasy baseball questions every weekday, whether it’s redraft or dynasty, or during the offseason, draft season, the regular season or the fantasy playoffs. The main goal of this Substack? To help you win your fantasy leagues.

Charlie Morton (#267, 29 trade value).

Charlie Morton struggled on the mound last season, at least relative to what we’ve come to expect from the veteran in his career. The 41-year-old pitched to a 4.19 ERA in 165.1 innings for Atlanta in 2025.

His whiff rate finished below the 71^st percentile league-wide for just the second time in a full season since 2017, and Morton’s 4.46 FIP was his highest in a season since 2010.

So all that is unideal.

Fast forward to this season, and unideal is probably apt to describe the veteran’s overall numbers. He owns a 6.05 ERA and a 4.77 FIP in 16 appearances spanning 61 innings. If the season were to end today, his 4.72 walks per nine innings would be the second-highest walks per nine innings rate of his career, the second-highest after his rookie campaign.

Again, unideal.

Baltimore has even tried utilizing him after an opener at times.

But, Morton has been decidedly better as of late.

More specifically, since April 26.

Dating back to that day, the veteran has pitched to a 3.57 ERA and 3.88 FIP in 40.1 innings, surrendering just a 5.4% barrel rate and a 33.9% hard-hit rate in the process.

What’s more, he’s logging a 12.1% swinging strike rate during that span. That 12.1% number is far ahead of Morton’s 11.4% swinging strike rate last year.

In fact, from 2019 to 2023, Morton logged a swinging strike rate north of 12.0% in each season.

During that span, among 157 qualified starters, only 36 had a higher swinging strike rate.

What’s more, the last time Morton’s swinging strike rate was north of 12.0% in a season, he logged a 3.64 ERA, a 3.87 FIP, a 25.6% strikeout rate, an 11.6% walk rate and 14 pitcher wins in 30 starts for Atlanta in 2023. His swinging strike rate that season was 12.6%.

And while Morton is unlikely to reach that type of pitcher win tally with Baltimore, the Orioles’ place in the standings certainly increases the chances, at least speculatively speaking, that Morton could be traded to a contender come next month.

If that’s the case, and the contender doesn’t have an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark, Morton could provide fantasy managers with more quality innings down the stretch.

Marcus Semien (#190, 40 trade value).

Speaking of veterans who have turned things around after a slow start, Marcus Semien has been excellent at the plate as of late.

From Opening Day through May 31, he was hitting just .193 with a .278 on-base percentage, four home runs and four stolen bases in 231 plate appearances.

In 63 plate appearances since, Semien is batting .345 with nearly as many home runs (three), half as many stolen bases (two), identical strikeout (11.1%) and walk (11.1%) rates and a .413 on-base percentage. His wRC+ is 188 since the start of June. It was 55 beforehand.

We’ve seen something similar before with Semien.

Back in 2022, he hit just .199 with a .266 on-base percentage in 207 plate appearances through the end of May, logging just a home run and six stolen bases in the process. His wRC+ was, wait for it, 55.

After that, the veteran would go on to hit .268 with a .319 on-base percentage, 25 home runs, 19 stolen bases and a 127 wRC+ in 517 plate appearances, logging 80 runs scored and 66 RBI in the process.

Can Semien pull off something similar this season?

It’s certainly possible. Looking at stats for the entirety of the season this year, Semien’s barrel rate, xwOBA, hard-hit rate and walk rate are all better than they were in 2022. His xwOBAcon too. His strikeout rate has jumped from 16.6% in 2022 to just 19.1% this year.

• Marcus Semien in 2022: 6.8% barrel rate, .306 xwOBA, 34.9% hard-hit rate, 7.3% walk rate, .333 xwOBAcon

• Marcus Semien in 2024: 7.3% barrel rate, .334 xwOBA, 37.1% hard-hit rate, 10.2% walk rate, .368 xwOBAcon

One word of caution, though, is the counting stats.

Much of what made Semien such a great fantasy option in years past, particularly in Roto formats, was the fact that he hit leadoff pretty much every game for the Rangers. Seriously, Semien has played 161, 162 and 159 games respectively in each of his first three seasons with Texas. He’s also played 159 games or more in each of his last seven full seasons.

With all those plate appearances came a ton of counting stat opportunities, primarily the RBI and runs scored.

And while Semien will still see plenty of RBI and run-scoring chances, he was dropped to fifth in the lineup for a stretch for much of May even hitting as low as eighth and ninth in late May and early June.

Since he’s started to bounce back at the plate, Semien is now regularly batting fourth for the Rangers.

Which, again, should be good for his RBI chances, but the second baseman just might not see the elite RBI and runs scored opportunities that made him a top-50 fantasy player for the better part of the last half-decade.

These are cumulative league splits for all of baseball, but here’s a look at the difference in plate appearances by batting order position:

• First: 22,350 plate appearances

• Second: 21,833 plate appearances

• Third: 21,356 plate appearances

• Fourth: 20,838 plate appearances

• Fifth: 20,303 plate appearances

• Sixth: 19,793 plate appearances

• Seventh: 19,254 plate appearances

• Eighth: 18,660 plate appearances

• Ninth: 18,062 plate appearances

Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)

Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.

While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially, if you’re having to cut someone, it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.

Recent Rankings:

Fantasy Baseball 2025 Redraft Top 500 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.20

Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Top 700 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.22

New Weekly Column Alert! (Check out Week 1’s column for free! Really excited about this!)

League Winners Week 12: Four Under The Radar Trade Targets

The Most Recent 50 Relievers Of Note:

50 Fantasy Relievers Of Note, Version 1.6

Also: