Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Top 700 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.18
This week: Mick Abel's promising start, plus why Tarik Skubal and Corbin Carroll are even better this season.
New this week: Two of the best fantasy baseball players (and real-life players, let’s be honest) have gotten even better this season. What that means dynasty-wise for both, plus a look at a potential breakout Philadelphia Phillies starter.
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Corbin Carroll (#6, 91 trade value).
Corbin Carroll was probably better than his .231 average and .322 on-base percentage would indicate last season, and he certainly helped buoy his fantasy scoring with 22 home runs, 121 runs scored, 74 RBI and 35 stolen bases in 684 plate appearances, hitting at the top of a high-powered Arizona Diamondbacks lineup.
Corbin Carroll is once again hitting at the top of said high-powered Arizona Diamondbacks lineups. He’s always been an elite stolen base threat. From 2023 to 2024, only Elly De La Cruz had more stolen bases. However, this year, Carroll’s production is up in part due to a significant jump in loud contact.
Pretty much everything has gone up across the board in terms of batted ball data. And not just from an “oh look, that’s better” but more to the point where it’s all pretty much elite across the board.
Corbin Carroll in 2024:
.241 xBA
.391 xSLG
.324 xwOBA
.349 xwOBAcon
40.8% hard-hit rate
7.2% barrel rate
Corbin Carroll in 2025:
.288 xBA
.615 xSLG
.411 xwOBA
.523 xwOBAcon
17.8% barrel rate
That xwOBAcon in particular is notable. And while it’s come with a slight rise in strikeouts (Carroll’s strikeout rate is up to 24.6% so far after finishing last year at 19.0%) it’s also the fifth-highest xwOBAcon in the sport. Only Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Kyle Stowers and Oneil Cruz have a better metric in that category.
For context, the next five after Carroll in the top 10 for xwOBAcon are Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, Rafael Devers, Jonathan Aranda and James Wood.
It’s a game-changing development for the Diamondbacks outfielder’s fantasy ceiling. He’s moved from being in and around the top 15 to decidedly in the top 10 at number six.
And while it’s still a reasonably small sample size to start the year, it doesn’t look fluky from a power standpoint.
Last year, Carroll had 34 barrels on 471 batted ball events.
This year? He already has 26 barrels on just 146 batted ball events.
Today is May 20.
Tarik Skubal (#15, 80 trade value).
Speaking of really good fantasy players who may have gotten even better, Tarik Skubal may actually be more dominant this season.
Cue the Dwight from The Office GIF, because yes, it’s true.
Entering play Tuesday, the reigning American League Cy Young winner had logged a 2.67 ERA in 54 innings, with 11.83 strikeouts per nine innings compared to just 1.00 walks and 0.83 home runs surrendered per nine frames. The home runs allowed per nine innings, like the ERA, were slightly up from last year. Slightly, as in going from 0.70 to that 0.83 number.
But a look at Skubal’s other metrics across the board show a pitcher who’s been even better this year.
Here, for reference, is what Skubal did last year in 192 innings.
2.49 FIP
30.3 K%
4.6 BB%
14.6 SwStr%
112 Stuff+
33.9% hard-hit rate
.339 xwOBAcon
And here, for reference, is what Skubal has done in 54 innings (entering play on Tuesday) this season
2.12 FIP
33.6 K%
2.8 BB%
18.9 SwStr%
119 Stuff+
31.1% hard-hit rate
.390 xwOBAcon
I’m not usually for giving up a lot in dynasty (or redraft) trades for pitching just because it’s comparatively easier to find quality pitching through the season via waivers (in head-to-head leagues, overwhelming with pitching volume is very much worth a look), but Skubal might be the rare exception.
Obviously a lot depends on your roster depth, roster needs, and where you’re aiming to be in the standings, but Skubal is about as elite as you can get from a pitching standpoint.
Mick Abel (#261, 31 trade value).
A former top prospect, Mick Abel struggled at times in Triple-A in 2024. Abel pitched to a 6.46 ERA and a 5.47 FIP in 24 starts spanning 108.2 innings. A .346 BABIP was probably partially responsible for some of that. And while it’s unideal to scout purely based on stat lines, the fact that Abel walked 6.46 batters per nine frames (compared to 9.69 strikeouts and 1.24 homers allowed per nine frames) was less than ideal.
This year, Abel has been decidedly more effective at the minors’ highest level. The ERA (2.53) and FIP (3.79) are both down. He’s struck out 9.91 batters per nine innings and, perhaps most crucially, the walks are down significantly. As in down to 3.69 per nine frames.
The improved effectiveness certainly helped the 23-year-old earn his first Major League start in a recent spot start.
And while it was just one start – a start after which Abel was sent back to Triple-A afterwards – when paired with Abel’s improvements in Triple-A, it makes Abel not only an intriguing fantasy trade target, but also one who could start living up to the high-upside potential he flashed earlier in his minor league career.
Abel generated 18 swings and misses on 84 pitches in six scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates, striking out nine and scattering just five hits. In the process, the right-hander logged a stellar 38% CSW rate.
Of his 18 swings and misses, seven came via his four-seamer, with eight via the curveball. Abel missed bats with his sinker (two swings and misses) and slider (one swing and miss) as well.
Especially with the fact that he’s back in Triple-A, he makes for an ideal trade target in a smaller trade, or as a secondary or tertiary player in a larger, blockbuster deal. He could help your rotation with quality innings and strikeouts in both the short term (relatively speaking) and the long term.
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially, if you’re having to cut someone, it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
Also a quick note on prospects:
Proximity matters. Upside is obviously king here, but proximity to the Majors matters here as well with prospects, at least from a fantasy standpoint. It can be a bit of a tie-breaker with prospects with similar upside but at different minor league levels. Furthermore, the farther away a prospect is from the Majors, the more it impacts their fantasy trade value.
Of course, that’s not going to have much of a difference with elite prospects in the low minors like Ethan Salas or Max Clark, but it’s why some prospects who aren’t necessarily in the upper echelon of fantasy prospects, may have a lower trade value number in dynasty formats than a lower ceiling player already in the Majors who is guaranteed to provide MLB (and fantasy) production at least in the coming years.
Last week’s rankings and analysis:
New Weekly Column Alert! (Check out Week 1’s column for free!) Really excited about this!
League Winners Week 1: Three Potential (Future) Aces
Welcome to League Winners! A new weekly, in-season column that I’m really excited to debut.
League Winners Week 8: A Potentially Elite Fantasy Closer and Two Under the Radar Sluggers With Low Strikeout Rates Making Plenty of Loud Contact
In this week’s League winners, a reliever who has a chance to finish the year as a top-10 (or better) fantasy closer if he continues to pitch in the ninth inning.
