Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Top 700 Rankings & Trade Value Version 1.1
The first batch of updates are here!
Welcome back to the Dynasty top 700 rankings (and trade value chart)!
If you’re new here, welcome! The whole gist of this Susbtack is to help you win your fantasy baseball leagues and fantasy baseball trades.
There’s more about how the rankings are put together at this link, but really this is all about helping you pull off successful fantasy trades and successful ascents to the top of the fantasy standings.
There’s plenty to break down this week. Both in terms of some new names to the list (hello, Roki Sasaki) to several players who have already seen their fantasy ceilings dented or improved thanks to early offseason transactions. Similar to before, this week’s trade value chart will be followed by the notes and analysis.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into it.
(If you have any questions about specific trade offers for your team or are curious about an offer you were thinking of sending out, becoming a paid subscriber grants you daily access to my fantasy help chat where I’ll be answering all of your fantasy baseball questions every weekday, whether it’s offseason, the regular season or the fantasy playoffs.)
Notes
Roki Sasaki checks in at #56 (64 trade value). Now that we know Sasaki will be posted at some point in the coming months by the Chibba Lotte Mariners and will likely pitch in the Majors in 2025, he not only jumps into the rankings but jumps fairly high up them as well, ranking comfortably in the top 100. The ace upside is there. The only thing to watch now is exactly where the hurler will sign. That could impact things. In other words, don’t necessarily expect him to stay at #71 or thereabouts all offseason. A move to the fantasy-friendly Dodgers roster or to the Padres and the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park could elevate Sasaki even further before Opening Day arrives. It’d be a similar type of situation if he signed for a team with another pitcher-friendly park in Detroit, Seattle or San Francisco. On the flip side, a move to say Yankee Stadium might drop him down the rankings just a bit. Either way? You’ll want him on your fantasy team, potentially leading your fantasy rotation.
Jeff Hoffman: For now, Hoffman jumps from 383 to 351 with reports (including from The Athletic) that teams are considering him as a starting pitcher. This is obviously a situation to watch as the offseason unfolds, but now might be the time to trade for Hoffman for two key reasons. One, the upside as a starter is considerable – if he does sign with a team that intends to have him start, he could potentially jump 50 to 100 spots in these rankings – especially with the pitch arsenal to find success in the rotation with a strong slider, four-seamer, splitter, sinker mix. Two, even if Hoffman doesn’t start games, his fantasy floor (depending on the team that signs him) is that of an ancillary save or closing committee option who sees 10 to 15 saves with strong strikeout and peripheral production.
Nick Martinez is up to #235 (33 trade value). One of the pitchers to receive the qualifying offer this offseason, Martinez is reportedly “expected to accept the $21.05M qualifying offer” per Jon Heyman in a column written in the New York Post on November 6. Martinez pitched as both a starter and reliever for the Cincinnati Reds last season, making 42 appearances, including 16 starts. He logged a 3.10 ERA and a 3.21 FIP in 142.1 innings, providing elite production in terms of limiting walks and hard contact. The 34-year-old ranked in the 88th percentile or better in walk rate (3.2%, 99th percentile), hard-hit% (30.5%, 96th percentile) and barrel rate (5.1%, 88th), things that helped him thrive in Cincinnati and should help the 34-year-old continue to find success with the National League Central club. The veteran’s jump in this rankings is mainly down to the fact that he seems likely (speculatively speaking) to pitch out of the rotation full-time next year – a role he thrived in down the stretch. In 11 starts from August 5 onwards, Martinez pitched to a 2.42 ERA and a 3.25 FIP in 53.1 innings while giving up just 1.14 walks and 0.85 home runs per nine innings. He allowed only two earned runs in his last 27 innings. For reference, per Spotrac, no reliever made more than $20 million last season salary-wise. He’s the perfect addition to a fantasy team loaded with high-strikeout starters as he can provide cover and insurance where ERA and WHIP are concerned.
Nick Pivetta moves from #222 to #241. Pivetta, like Martinez, received a qualifying offer. And while it remains to be seen if the veteran will move to another team this winter, it certainly doesn’t hurt his chances of staying in Boston. Like Martinez, Pivetta plays in a rather hitter-friendly ballpark. And while he’s generally had excellent stuff as of late (with Stuff+ numbers of 133 and 119 in the last two seasons, per FanGraphs), and misses bats at a high rate (most notably with a 28.9% strikeout rate last year), the veteran hasn’t been as proficient at limiting hard contact. He ranked in the 10th percentile league-wide in barrel rate (10.1%) and the sixth percentile in ground ball rate (33.4%). His fantasy ceiling certainly could still benefit from a switch to a new team, but for now, the qualifying offer adds another variable to the hurler’s free agency after averaging an fWAR around 1.9 the last four seasons. If he stays in Boston, the his fantasy upside is at best treading water compared to where it was last season.
Willy Adames moves up to #175. Unlike (speculatively speaking) Pivetta, Adames’ receiving the qualifying offer shouldn’t impact his free agency too much, although that’s all speculative on my part. In fact, there’s been a potential development recently that could boost Adames’ fantasy floor and ceiling considerably. Per an article from Will Sammon and Katie Woo in The Athletic on November 5 from the GM Meetings, “Willy Adames wants to stay at shortstop but would be willing to play a different position if he gets a strong offer from a team in position to win, league sources said.” A potential move to, say, third base would be the most significant development in the short term for fantasy managers given the potential for corner infield and middle infield positional eligibility next season. And that’s all without mentioning the possibility of Adames moving to a better lineup. This is certainly a situation to watch for fantasy managers, and the veteran could move up 20 or more spots in these rankings (with a decent bump in trade value) depending on if he switches positions and or teams.
Drake Baldwin at 148 (38 trade value). I was already probably higher than most on Baldwin after he hit .298 with a 135 wRC+, a 15.6% walk rate and just a 16.2% strikeout rate in 334 plate appearances for Atlanta’s Triple-A affiliate last season. Obviously, scouting on stat lines isn’t the most advisable practice in terms of scouting prospects, but the walk rate is the key bit that stands out here. Now with Travis d’Arnaud a free agent after Atlanta declined their team option on the catcher’s contract, there’s a potential vacancy alongside Sean Murphy behind the plate for the National League East club. And considering how much Murphy struggled (.308 xwOBA in 264 plate appearances in an admittedly injury-shortened season), there’s a at least a possibility that Baldwin is the primary catcher in Atlanta by some point next season. The primary catcher in a reasonably young Atlanta lineup that will return Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Jarred Kelenic and Ozzie Albies. If you can trade for Baldwin now, it might be the time to do it. There’s also a chance he’s well within the top 100 of these rankings by the trade deadline next summer.
Devin Williams checks in at #90 (53 trade value). Williams is going to close wherever he goes. If you’re going to count the five best relievers in the sport, the Brewers closer is probably somewhere on that list. However, like his former teammate Adames, he’s someone to watch here. The Brewers have been here before with trading players with just one year left on their contracts (see Mark Canha and Corbin Burnes last year) and the closer could move up a few spots if he’s dealt to another playoff team with no competition for saves. Now might also be a good time to try trading for Trevor Megill, who is currently ranked 381st with a 25 trade value number, and who thrived while Williams was on the injured list last season.
Trevor Story is ranked #363 (29 trade value). If there’s a player ranked below the 300 mark to take a flier on in a trade (one with immense fantasy upside) there are few with Story’s fantasy ceiling. When health the last few seasons, the infielder has struggled in a limited sample size, compiling just a .366 xwOBAcon on 103 batted ball events in 2023, and registering just a .326 xwOBAcon on 61 batted ball events this past season. Still, he’s reached double-digit home runs and stolen bases in his last five full seasons and gets to play in a home park with the second-highest overall park factor (per Statcast) in the last three years.
Logan O’Hoppe moves down a few spots this week from #178 to #182 purely because the Angels signed Travis d’Arnaud to a two-year contract. O’Hoppe still has a 37 trade value and this isn’t a reason to trade him away, but d’Arnaud’s presence in anything approaching potential timeshare certainly hurts O’Hoppe’s short-term fantasy ceiling. With that being said though, there’s a very real chance the Angels are trade deadline sellers as soon as this July and trade d’Arnaud at some point before his contract is finished. That’s obviously all speculative on my part, but there’s no reason to lose hope on O’Hoppe just yet.
Last Week’s Rankings
Things to keep in mind:
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially if you’re having to cut someone it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
Also a quick note on prospects:
Proximity matters. Upside is obviously king here, but proximity to the Majors matters here as well with prospects, at least from a fantasy standpoint. It can be a bit of a tie-breaker with prospects with similar upside but at different minor league levels. Furthermore, the farther away a prospect is from the Majors, the more it impacts their fantasy trade value.
Of course, that’s not going to have much of a difference with elite prospects in the low minors like Ethan Salas or Max Clark, but it’s why some prospects who aren’t necessarily in the upper echelon of fantasy prospects, may have a lower trade value number in dynasty formats than a lower ceiling player already in the Majors who is guaranteed to provide MLB (and fantasy) production at least in the coming years.