Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Top 700 Rankings & Trade Value Version 1.0
Hi everybody,
And welcome to Ben Rosener’s Fantasy Baseball Help, where the goal is to help you win your fantasy baseball leagues and trades.
This will be one of the staples of the Substack page: The dynasty top 700 rankings and trade value chart. Updated each week on Tuesdays with new notes.
These rankings take into account everything from home ballparks, lineups, expected and underlying metrics, ETA (for prospects) and positional eligibility, among many others.
Before we get started with the top 700, just a few quick notes about how the rankings are put together, then the actual rankings, then the notes and analysis about the rankings after that.
Just like this Substack page as a whole, these trade value charts are designed to help you win not just the specific trade, but ultimately your league as well.
(If you have any questions about specific trade offers for your team or are curious about an offer you were thinking of sending out, becoming a paid subscriber grants you daily access to my fantasy help chat where I’ll be answering all of your fantasy baseball questions every weekday, whether it’s offseason, the regular season or the fantasy playoffs.)
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially if you’re having to cut someone it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
Also a quick note on prospects:
Proximity matters. Upside is obviously king here, but proximity to the Majors matters here as well with prospects, at least from a fantasy standpoint. It can be a bit of a tie-breaker with prospects with similar upside but at different minor league levels. Furthermore, the farther away a prospect is from the Majors, the more it impacts their fantasy trade value.
Of course, that’s not going to have much of a difference with elite prospects in the low minors like Ethan Salas or Max Clark, but it’s why some prospects who aren’t necessarily in the upper echelon of fantasy prospects, may have a lower trade value number in dynasty formats than a lower ceiling player already in the Majors who is guaranteed to provide MLB (and fantasy) production at least in the coming years.
Notes
Vladimir Guerero Jr.’s eligibility at both corner infield spots was quietly one of the more significant fantasy developments of the year, positioning him as a top-10 option for as long as he has it. It’s close to a coin flip with him and Henderson, but eligibility at third base (where he could arguably be the best fantasy third baseman next year) keeps him a bit higher up the rankings for now. (Side note, the floor isn’t going to drop out of his rankings if he doesn’t have third-base eligibility, it just makes him that much better from a fantasy standpoint.
Watch the innings, with Garrett Crochet moving forward, but he's a potential top-five fantasy starter moving forward in the right situation (team, innings count). If he’s even on a .500 team with a full complement of innings next year, he’ll be right up there with Tarik Skubal for the top fantasy pitcher in the league. Even with the shortened starts in the second half, he finished in the 91st percentile or better in xERA, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and fastball velocity. His walk rate (5.5%) finished just missed out. It finished in the 87th percentile. Say it with me, ace.
Austin Riley: It’s been a bit of a down year surface-level stats-wise, but Riley is a potential top 20 player overall player when his surface-level numbers play along with his elite underlying and quality of contact metrics. Atlanta's injury woes probably contributed a bit to his counting stats. With the elite quality of contact numbers, he’s an excellent trade target if someone is down on him, relatively speaking.
Will Smith: I'm probably higher on him than most. Counting stats for the most part will still be there, though he had a down year of sorts in 2024. He's a top-30 overall (or better) player if he can bounce back to what he's done consistently in the last few years. Like Luis Robert, he's a quality trade target, but one with much less risk given the fantasy environment around him. The fact that Dalton Rushing is now playing in the outfield some certainly doesn't hurt Smith's long-term upside. The Dodgers also moved Eduardo Quintero off of catcher to the outfield and traded Thayron Liranzo to the Tigers. And oh yeah, there’s the long-term extension Smith signed that should keep him as Los Angeles catcher for the majority of the rest of his career. There are few, if any, catchers with as much fantasy upside.
Dylan Cease: A great first season in San Diego. Next year should be great too with all those strikeouts in such a pitcher-friendly ballpark. There are few more fantasy-friendly situations than a really good starting pitcher starting every five days for the Padres.
Teoscar Hernandez: As long as he’s in Los Angeles making all that loud contact in an elite Dodgers lineup, Hernandez will stay within the top 100 moving forward. If he leaves for a different local with not quite as imposing of a lineup, he could drop a fair bit in these rankings, and his trade value with it. One to watch this offseason. If you have an offer to move him for a similarly impactful fantasy hitter this winter, it might not be a bad idea to gamble on moving Hernandez for a player with similar upside who seems likely to stick with a club long-term.
Bailey Ober: So much consistency. Like consistently good. And consistent. Did I mention he’s consistent? Ober finished in the 75th percentile or better in whiff rate, walk rate, strikeout rate, chase rate, xERA, xBA and hard-hit rate this year – not to mention the 97th in extension. He ranked in the 85th percentile or better in both chase rate and walk rate each year from 2021 through 2023. Add all that up over time and you have a regular top-20 fantasy starting pitcher. The term “set and forget” gets used a lot in fantasy in terms of putting a player in a starting lineup. That’s very much the case with Ober, just not when he’s facing the Kansas City Royals.
Oneil Cruz: Cruz was better this year, though the strikeouts remained. Even if something like this (.347 xwOBA, 21 home runs, 22 stolen bases in 577 plate appearances) is his fantasy ceiling, he’ll be a potentially key fantasy option for at least next season given he now has both outfield and shortstop eligibility. Of course, that not might be his ceiling, but for now his ability to make loud contact and steal bases gives him immense fantasy upside.
Josue Briceno: Underrated is the key word here. If you want to steal a march on your league mates and find an under-the-radar prospect who is a potential future impact fantasy catcher... it's Briceno. He’s a few years off, but the upside is there. Scouting stat lines isn’t always the right move with prospects, particularly hitters, but it’s worth noting that Briceno hit .278 with a .381 on-base percentage, a .368 wOBA, a 123 wRC+, two home runs and nearly more walks (12.5% walk rate) than strikeouts (14.8%) in 176 plate appearances at Single-A this season as a 19-year-old.
Ryan Walker: Is 169 too high for a pitcher who just stepped into a closing role in the last handful of weeks? Maybe. But maybe not. Walker has been one of baseball’s best relievers this season and hasn’t missed a beat stepping into the closer’s role. He’s struck out 33.0% of the batters he’s faced, logged a 5.7% walk rate and pitched to a 1.96 ERA and a 2.46 FIP in 78 innings. And oh yeah, opposing batters have managed just a 29.7% hard-hit rate this year. Here are the only pitchers in the league with a lower hard-hit rate: Huascar Brazoban, Osvaldo Bido, Tanner Scott, Blake Snell, Austin Voth, Ryan Yarbrough and Emmanuel Clase. That’s it. There’s top-10 or top-five fantasy closer potential here. If a manager in your league values him more as just a good closer (think top 15, or thereabouts) and not a great one, now’s the time to work out a trade.
Triston Casas: There’s 40+ home run potential here, especially in that ballpark, and as soon as next season if Casas is healthy for the full year.
Justin Martinez: Sort of similar to Walker (though not quite) this could be a bit high. There’s more risk here than with Walker, especially with AJ Puk on hand in Arizona, but there’s plenty of upside should Martinez remain in the ninth-inning role for the Diamondbacks.
Spencer Jones: I worry about the strikeouts. Considerable fantasy upside, but the strikeouts, including a 36.8% K% at Double-A (544 PA) aren’t ideal. And that number represented a jump from the 29.2% he logged at Double-A (78 PA) last year, as well as the 29.0% number he posted at Advanced-A (459 PA) in 2023). Something to watch moving forward.
Jairo Irarte: I’m intrigued by the upside, but just not a believer in the White Sox; ability to develop prospects at the moment. If he’s with another organization, his ranking and trade value both probably go up, just hard to trust the White Sox from a player development standpoint given their recent track record. Similar story with Jordan Leasure later on in the rankings.
Carlos Estevez: A free agent this winter, Estevez could move in either direction this winter. If he’s closing games as a team’s primary closer in 2025, he’ll probably be closer to the 200 mark in these rankings and his trade value would jump accordingly. If he’s in a committee, it might drop a bit, depending on where said committee is. If he isn’t a closer, well, the number will drop.