Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Top 700 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.14
Four promising young hitters plus a potential top-five fantasy closer.
New this week, a look at a handful of (potentially) emerging young hitters, including one of the game’s better power hitters so far this season.
There’s a lot to get to this week, so we’ll jump right into the trade values, data and analysis, but there are a number of young, potentially undervalued (long-term) dynasty options who could be available via the waiver wire.
Young hitters, that regardless of their surface-level production, boast extremely promising underlying and quality of contact stats in the season’s early weeks.
We also have a closing situation to monitor very closely moving forward. Particularly if you’re a fantasy manager who prefers to mix and match with saves production via waiver wire, it’s something to keep a close eye on.
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Cam Smith (#135, 42 trade value).
Smith started the year hitting just .143 with a .250 on-base percentage and a 48 wRC+ in his first 24 plate appearances in the Majors. His wOBA during that span? .230. The infielder also struck out 41.7% of the time during that span.
Those numbers have, unsurprisingly, taken a toll on Smith’s season-long stat line. He’s hitting .237 with a .308 on-base percentage on the season. The surface-level numbers might not look encouraging, and we’re still dealing with a small sample size here, but in the 41 plate appearances since, the top prospect is hitting .289 with a .341 on-base percentage, three home runs, three barrels, a 10.3% barrel rate and a stolen base while posting a strikeout rate of 22%.
Again, we’re very early in the season and even earlier in Smith’s Major League career, but the fact that he’s already bounced back from an early-season slump is extremely encouraging.
What’s maybe more encouraging? Particularly long-term? Smith is already in the 88th percentile in bat speed (74.6 MPH) and sits in the 72nd in chase rate (23.7%). As long as both of those numbers continue to be decidedly good, the 22-year-old should have no problem being an impact fantasy hitter.
Cade Smith (#274, 32 trade value).
Emmanuel Clase is probably still the closer long-term in Cleveland. It’s a bit too early to talk about Clase not being the closer in Cleveland. He still has a 3.72 FIP in 11 appearances and 10.1 innings this season, though the FIP is decidedly high for Clase, whose previous career high for a FIP in a season with 60 or more innings was 2.91.
Still, Clase has allowed nine earned runs, three walks and a home run in 10.1 innings this season.
For reference, Clase allowed five earned runs, 10 walks and two home runs all of last season in 74.1 innings of work.
Enter Cade Smith, who entered play Tuesday ranking in the 90th percentile in whiff rate (34.0%) and the 87th percentile (32.0%) in strikeout rate. He’s yet to allow a barrel this season and has limited opposing batters to a 37.9% hard-hit rate. What’s more? He also has saves in each of Cleveland’s first two games this week.
Again, this still looks like Clase’s job long-term (both this season and in future seasons), and the veteran has as good and as consistent of a track record as anyone in the sport among relievers.
But even the slightest notion of Smith potentially replacing the veteran full-time makes this something to follow intently.
In any hypothetical situation where Smith becomes the regular closer for Cleveland, whether that’s for a few weeks while Clase works through the struggles or for a few months or years, he would immediately replace the veteran as a top-five fantasy closer (for as long as he’s closing) with his ability to miss bats at an elite rate.
Last season as a rookie the 25-year-old finished in the 98th percentile in strikeout rate (35.6%) while registering a whiff rate (30.2%) that finished in the 84th percentile. It didn’t hurt either that his 5.9% walk rate finished in the 83rd percentile.
If he’s still available in your league, he’s very much worth a speculative add now. Again, Clase still looks like the closer long-term, speculatively speaking. But in the off chance that he’s not, you’re just simply not going to find players with this type of fantasy ceiling via waivers, particularly in a dynasty league.
(Note: Per a Cleveland.com article from Joe Noga on Wednesday, Noga relayed a quote from Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt who said Clase “has been dealing with right shoulder discomfort since his appearance Saturday.”)
Kyle Stowers (#307, 32 trade value).
The Miami Marlins has a number of breakout fantasy hitters last season that made an impact in fantasy pennant chases down the stretch in 2024. Just like with Xavier Edwards, Connor Norby and Jonah Bride last season, the Marlins might have another breakout fantasy hitter (or two) this season.
We’ll start with Kyle Stowers, who entered play on Tuesday, pacing all Marlins hitters in fWAR, and for good reason with a .306 average, a .388 on-base percentage, a pair of home runs and a stolen base in 85 plate appearances.
The bad news is that Stowers’ batting average might not stay this high forever. The outfielder is striking out 30.6% of the time and sporting an inflated .435 BABIP. That pairing is, in a word, unideal for a hitter’s surface-level production. There’s also the 39.2% whiff rate that ranks in just the third percentile league-wide.
But, at the same time, Stowers’ power production looks like it should increase moving forward.
The 27-year-old has just the two home runs so far, but he’s collected nine (!) barrels on the season, good for an 18.8% barrel rate. He’s also sporting hard-hit rate (52.1%) and bat speed (74.4 MPH) metrics that are equal parts promising and very much underscore the power production being legitimate.
(Stowers, for reference, had a 10.9% barrel rate and a .417 xwOBAcon in 209 plate appearances last season, so the power production isn’t entirely new for him).
What’s more, the former Orioles prospect has logged 44 of his 85 plate appearances so far batting second for the Marlins. 65 of his 85 plate appearances this season have come hitting either second or third. As long as that continues, the outfielder should see plenty of RBI opportunities hitting after Xavier Edwards (.371 on-base percentage, six stolen bases in 105 plate appearances).
Eric Wagaman (#548, 17 trade value).
Eric Wagaman doesn’t have Stowers’ gaudy barrel rate so far (the infielder’s is 9.0% as of Tuesday), but he’s off to a promising start at the plate this season from a quality of contact standpoint.
The 27-year-old infielder is striking out just 14.1% of the time while sporting a .456 xwOBAcon. Again, we’re looking at a small sample size in the grand scheme of things, but Wagaman’s xwOBAcon is exactly the same as Rafael Devers’ was last season, and already ahead of the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kristian Campbell, Manny Machado, Bobby Witt Jr., and Bryce Harper on this season’s leaderboard among qualified hitters.
Overall, the 27-year-old Marlins infielder ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in xSLG (.582, 92nd percentile), xwOBA (.412, 93rd percentile) and xBA (.328, 95th percentile).
His chase rate (23.7%) isn’t in quite as high of a percentile. It ranks in the 72nd league wide, still, when paired with all the loud contact and the low strikeout rate, it paints a promising picture for Wagaman’s future, even if it’s in a smaller sample size to start the year.
The 27-year-old is very much worth a look if he’s available via waivers. The floor is a quality short-term option. The ceiling? A long-term fantasy contributor or starter (depending on league size) at a corner infield spot.
Kyle Manzardo (#269, 32 trade value).
A former top prospect, Kyle Manzardo, is finally getting his first extended look in the Majors.
The 24-year-old hit .234 with a .282 on-base percentage, a 98 wRC+ and five home runs in 156 plate appearances last season for Cleveland, but has been much more impactful at the plate this time around.
Entering play Tuesday, Manzardo had already connected on seven home runs in 85 plate appearances while hitting .217 with a .329 on-base percentage and a 155 wRC+.
The chasm in wRC+ differences immediately stands out. And while the batting average could certainly be better, Manzardo is also sporting a decidedly above-average .365 xwOBA. In other words, take the low batting average with a grain of salt. There’s plenty to be encouraged by here.
The power production is one. Along with the home runs, Manzardo is sporting a 19.6% barrel rate on 10 barrels so far and ranks in the 85th percentile or better in, walk rate (14.1%, 85th percentile), chase rate (20.8%, 87th percentile) and xSLG (.547, 87th percentile).
The biggest key, though, might be how the first baseman has fared against left-handed starters. Cleveland limited his exposure to left-handed pitching last season, with 136 of his 156 plate appearances coming against right-handed pitchers. None of his five home runs in 2024 were against left-handers. Manzardo’s wRC+ against left-handers? 60, compared to a 104 number against right-handers.
Fast forward to this season and the former top prospect is hitting .429 with four home runs, a 410 (!) wRC+ and just two strikeouts in 19 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers this season. The wRC+ is obviously a bit unsustainable, but the fact that he’s already finding so much success against left-handed pitching is promising.
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially, if you’re having to cut someone, it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
Also a quick note on prospects:
Proximity matters. Upside is obviously king here, but proximity to the Majors matters here as well with prospects, at least from a fantasy standpoint. It can be a bit of a tie-breaker with prospects with similar upside but at different minor league levels. Furthermore, the farther away a prospect is from the Majors, the more it impacts their fantasy trade value.
Of course, that’s not going to have much of a difference with elite prospects in the low minors like Ethan Salas or Max Clark, but it’s why some prospects who aren’t necessarily in the upper echelon of fantasy prospects, may have a lower trade value number in dynasty formats than a lower ceiling player already in the Majors who is guaranteed to provide MLB (and fantasy) production at least in the coming years.
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