Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Top 700 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.04
Trade for Ben Joyce. Plus more on the Mets lineup.
In this week’s dynasty rankings and trade value chart update, we’re first and foremost looking at the potential (significantly) positive impact of Pete Alonso reportedly rejoining the New York Mets.
Also! Some more recent, closer and free agent-related news (spoilers) that could make it possible to trade for a future closer in your league without giving up too much.
All that and more after the rankings!
If you have any questions about specific trade offers for your team or are curious about an offer you were thinking of sending out, becoming a paid subscriber grants you daily access to my fantasy help chat where I’ll be answering all of your fantasy baseball questions every weekday, whether it’s offseason, the regular season or the fantasy playoffs. The main goal of this Substack? To help you win your fantasy leagues.
The Mets Lineup
Pete Alonso is reportedly in agreement with the New York Mets, per a report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan on BlueSky on February 5. Per another post from Passon on BlueSky the same day, “Alonso’s deal with the New York Mets, which is pending physical, is for two years and includes an opt-out after the first season. He’ll make $30 million this year.”
The only real downside is that Mark Vientos potentially not seeing enough starts at first base to maintain fantasy eligibility at the position for the 2026 season, but other than that this pretty much a win-win-win (and yes, that’s a blatant reference to The Office).
Pete Alonso gets to stay in a lineup that should be very good, at least in terms of the top half of that lineup. He also gets to stay in a ballpark that was one of the better fits for him.
Per Statcast data, Alonso’s expected home run number per ballpark in his career was higher than his actual home run tally (231) in just eight ballparks. Citi Field at 233 was one of those eight ballparks.
And while the slugging first baseman had a bit of a down season in 2024 – at least relative to his past seasons – hitting just .240 with a .329 on-base percentage, 34 home runs, a .343 xwOBA, a 122 wRC+ and three stolen bases in 695 plate appearances, reportedly rejoining the Mets gives him an excellent opportunity to not only bounce back a bit ahead of another foray into free agency, but his dynasty trade value could also see a significant boost with a monster season.
And really, it might not take even a season if you have Alonso on your dynasty roster and are potentially looking to move him once his dynasty trade value is at its peak. Given the slugger’s track record – he did hit 34 home runs and nearly reached the 90 mark in both runs scored (91) and RBI (88) in somewhat of a down season last year– a strong first few months should be all that you need to convince other fantasy managers of Alonso’s return to form and that the past (relative) struggles are behind him.
Of course, much of that depends on your roster construction, but if you have a ready-made replacement waiting at first base or are rebuilding and want to only trade Alonso at the right and most opportune time, it wouldn’t be the worst idea to consider dealing the slugger after a few months of excellent production.
If you can get a top-30 overall type of player for Alonso, it’d be a definite win, or a prospect haul headlined by someone like Roman Anthony, Kristien Campbell, Max Clark or Josue De Paula and featuring a number of other quality prospects. Both options might sound like a lot now, but if Alonso can bounce back, it’s very much within the realm of possibility return-wise, particularly for more aggressively win-now fantasy managers who might inquire on Alonso.
Speaking of Alonso potentially bouncing back, he’ll get to do so in arguably the deepest lineup outside of Los Angeles. The Mets’ first four of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo were already among the best first four in the league. Now the top five in their lineup will rival most other lineups in the sport.
That should not only provide Alonso with plenty of counting stat opportunities to rack up runs scored and RBI, but also give those four plenty of run-scoring and RBI chances themselves.
Last season, 39 players had an xwOBAcon over .430, minimum 400 plate appearances.
Three of those 39 players were Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Mark Vientos.
Alonso reportedly agreeing to terms with the Mets is sort of like a tide that lifts all boats from a fantasy standpoint. Given where Soto and Lindor are in the dynasty rankings, it might not alter their rankings, but Vientos and Nimmo could each move up a spot or two, which is no insignificant thing.
Ben Joyce (#491, 20 trade value).
Now is officially the opening of the window to acquire Ben Joyce in dynasty formats.
The 24-year-old, whose four-seamer averaged 102.1 MPH last season, finished the 2024 campaign with a 2.08 ERA and a 3.20 FIP in 31 appearances spanning 34.2 innings of work. He added a 23.2% strikeout rate, a 9.2 walk rate and limited batters to just 0.26 home runs per nine innings.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, given that last fact, Joyce held batters to just a 4.4% barrel rate on the season.
Overall, the 24-year-old was generally able to limit quality contact. In addition to the 4.4% barrel rate, opposing batters managed just a .280 xwOBA and a .299 xwOBAcon against the right-hander, who also logged a 59.3% (!) ground ball rate.
He was just one of four relief pitchers, minimum 100 plate appearances, to log a ground ball rate above 55%, a barrel rate below 5.0% and a whiff rate north of 28.0%. The other three? Jhoan Duran, Justin Martinez and Kris Bubic.
Also unsurprisingly, given all that, Joyce saw considerable time as the Angels’ closer in the second half last season. After former closer Carlos Estevez was traded on July 24, Joyce saw more total ninth-inning appearances in the ninth inning. Just one other reliever (Roansy Contreras with six) saw more than four.
But, of course, not all ninth-inning chances are save chances.
Still, Joyce had six of the team’s 17 high-leverage, ninth-inning appearances from July 25 onwards. Eight other relievers combined for the other 11 high leverage, ninth-inning appearances, and none of them had more than two such outings.
Also? Ben Joyce had four of the team’s nine saves the rest of the way after the Estevez trade. No other Angels hurler had more than one during that stretch.
So all that is unsurprising.
What is a bit surprising is that the Angels have reportedly agreed to sign veteran closer Kenley Jansen.
That’s per a report from The New York Post’s Jon Heyman on Tuesday on BlueSky. Per a post from The New York Post’s Joel Sherman on BlueSky later in the day, it’s a one-year, $10 million deal for the longtime closer.
Jansen wasn’t quite as effective last season as he was at the peak of his powers with the Dodgers. He was still decidedly effective though, with a 3.29 ERA, a 3.00 FIP, 27 saves, a 28.4% strikeout rate and a 9.2% walk rate in 54.2 innings spanning 54 appearances. He also allowed just 0.66 homers per nine frames.
From the outside looking in, and purely speculatively speaking, Jansen looks like the favorite for saves in Anaheim.
Not so great (at least in the short term) for those with Joyce on their fantasy team. It is potentially great in the long-term for those without Joyce on their fantasy team, particularly if the team with Joyce is in win-now mode and isn’t in a position to use a roster spot on a reliever who won’t contribute regular saves.
Due to the nature of Joyce’s 2024 success and the reported length of Jansen’s contract, the closer role should be Joyce’s in 2026, if not July of 2025.
The Angels have certainly improved over the offseason, with a number of additions like Yusei Kikuchi, Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud and others joining Mike Trout and company in Southern California.
However, they don’t exactly look like a team (as constructed) that could challenge for the division or a Wild Card, unless players like Reid Detmers, Jo Adell, Zach Neto, Logan O’Hoppe and Nolan Schanuel continue to take significant steps forward.
In other words, there’s a real chance Joyce will be back in the closer’s gig by mid-season (in the event that Jansen is traded if the Angels move some veterans in July), which only makes him a more intriguing trade target for fantasy managers right now.
Look to acquire him as an ancillary player in a larger deal or in more of a minor deal.
Things to keep in mind:
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially if you’re having to cut someone it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
Also a quick note on prospects:
Proximity matters. Upside is obviously king here, but proximity to the Majors matters here as well with prospects, at least from a fantasy standpoint. It can be a bit of a tie-breaker with prospects with similar upside but at different minor league levels. Furthermore, the farther away a prospect is from the Majors, the more it impacts their fantasy trade value.
Of course, that’s not going to have much of a difference with elite prospects in the low minors like Ethan Salas or Max Clark, but it’s why some prospects who aren’t necessarily in the upper echelon of fantasy prospects, may have a lower trade value number in dynasty formats than a lower ceiling player already in the Majors who is guaranteed to provide MLB (and fantasy) production at least in the coming years.
