Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Top 700 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.24

This week: A deep dive into William Contreras and Cal Raleigh's 2025 numbers, including an equal parts specific and significant Raleigh stat that might be flying under the radar.

Jul 02, 2025

New this week: An in-depth look at a pair of elite fantasy catchers and their respective 2025 numbers. One, William Contreras, is having somewhat of a down year at the plate. Is there cause for concern where his fantasy ceiling is concerned?

Plus, a deep dive into Cal Raleigh’s excellent season at the plate, and a specific stat of his that might be flying under the radar.

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William Contreras (#48, 66 trade value).

One of the game’s most promising young catchers, William Contreras, has had an excellent start to like in the Majors. Entering this season, he’d finished in the 83^rd percentile or better in xwOBA in two of his first three seasons, twice finished in the 87^th percentile or better in xSLG and has yet to see his wRC+ dip below 126 in a season with more than 300 plate appearances.

All of that is good, and the 27-year-old seemed to turn a corner last season, hitting .281 with a .365 on-base percentage, 23 home runs, nine stolen bases, a 132 wRC+, a career-low 20.5% strikeout rate and a career-best (at the time) 11.5% walk rate.

Elsewhere, among the categories that Contreas finished in the 83^rd percentile or better included each of the following: xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, average bat speed and walk rate.

This year, however, Contreras hasn’t been so successful. He’s increased his walk rate to 15.5%, which has helped buoy his on-base percentage at a still very strong .357 number.

However, the 27-year-old’s batting average has dropped from .281 to .242. His BABIP is down from .330 to .290 and his wRC+ has dropped off from 132 to 103. The xwOBA? That’s fallen from .359 to .317.

And while it’s easy to point to the gap between BABIP numbers (Contreras’s strikeout rate has gone from 20.5% in 2024 to 19.0% this year) as the primary cause for a decrease in overall production, Contreras simply isn’t making as much loud contact, which isn’t ideal at all.

We’ve covered the xwOBA drop off, but the catcher has seen his xwOBAcon drop from .411 to .332, which would be the lowest of his career by a significant margin. His hard-hit rate has gone down as well.

William Contreras Since 2021:

2021: 185 PA, .410 xwOBAcon, 44.5% hard-hit rate.
2022: 376 PA, .446 xwOBAcon, 46.6% hard-hit rate.
2023: 611 PA, .379 xwOBAcon, 48.7% hard-hit rate
2024: 679 PA, .411 xwOBAcon, 49.5% hard-hit rate
2025: 336 PA, .332 xwOBAcon, 41.4% hard-hit rate

What’s also concerning is that Contreras is basically logging similar batted ball stats to last season in a number of places, pulling the ball in the air at the exact same rate, hitting fewer pop-ups and hitting more line drives.

William Conterras in 2024:

GB%: 54.0%
FB%: 19.4%
LD%: 21.4%
Pop up%: 5.2%

Percentage of batted balls hit to the pull side in the air: 10.9%

William Conterras in 2025:

GB%: 54.1%
FB%: 19.1%
LD%: 23.6%
Pop up%: 3.2%

Percentage of batted balls hit to the pull side in the air: 10.9%

It’s an unideal trend, and something to keep an eye on moving forward.

We’re also still only in July, and Contreas’ wRC+ was 20 points higher in the second half last year than it was this year. For his career, his second-half wRC+ sits at 141 with a 113 number for the first half, so perhaps the 27-year-old will turn things around at the plate.

Still, it hasn’t exactly been the best start.

That’s not to say you should trade Contreras away if he’s on your dynasty team. He’s bounced back before, particularly from a down season (at least from a quality of contact standpoint) in 2023, and has historically been better in the second half of seasons.

But it’s something to keep an eye on.

Cal Raleigh (#30, 73 trade value).

By now, you’ve probably noticed the elite season Cal Raleigh is in the midst of having.

(Yes, it’s an inadvertent, catcher-themed column this week).

Raleigh entered play on Tuesday batting .276 with a .387 on-base percentage, 33 (!) home runs, nine stolen bases and a wRC+ 88 points above league average in just 367 plate appearances.

Only 11 qualified position players have a higher xwOBA than the Seattle catcher (.394). Just 11 have a higher xwOBAcon (.488) than Raleigh.

No position player has hit more home runs.

The fact that play hasn’t started in July and Raliegh is already at 33 home runs is significant, but his production at the catcher spot is potentially even more significant.

Since well, this century, a catcher has hit more than 33 home runs in a season just six times. Raleigh did it once last season with 34. Gary Sanchez logged 34 homers in 2019.

Mike Piazza accomplished the feat twice with 36 and 38 home runs, respectively, in 2001 and 2000. Javy Lopez connected on 43 home runs in 495 plate appearances in 2003. And oh yeah, Salvador Perez hit 47 home runs in 2021.

But that’s it.

(And an aside, Raleigh finished in the 96^th percentile in barrel rate and the 83^rd percentile in xwOBA last season when he hit one more home run in 261 more plate appearances).

What might be flying under the radar a bit is the stolen bases.

Raleigh has nine of them, establishing a new career high after stealing six last season. Including those six in 2024, the veteran had seven for his career in the Majors prior to 2025.

Switching back to the historical context.

A catcher has stolen more than nine bases in a season just 22 times this century.

Of those 22 seasons, eight featured single-digit home run totals. Just four of them featured a home run tally north of 20. None of the seasons featured a catcher hitting more than 25 home runs.

Raleigh hit his 26^th and 27^th home runs nearly a month ago on June 6 in a game against the Los Angeles Angels.

Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)

Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof, rather, in trades.

While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially, if you’re having to cut someone, it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.

Also, a quick note on prospects:

Proximity matters. Upside is obviously king here, but proximity to the Majors matters here as well with prospects, at least from a fantasy standpoint. It can be a bit of a tie-breaker with prospects with similar upside but at different minor league levels. Furthermore, the farther away a prospect is from the Majors, the more it impacts their fantasy trade value.

Of course, that’s not going to have much of a difference with elite prospects in the low minors like Ethan Salas or Max Clark, but it’s why some prospects who aren’t necessarily in the upper echelon of fantasy prospects, may have a lower trade value number in dynasty formats than a lower ceiling player already in the Majors who is guaranteed to provide MLB (and fantasy) production at least in the coming years.