Fantasy Baseball 2025 Redraft Top 500 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.15
This week: A Dodgers starter enjoying a strong start and two (very) underrated, veteran hitters.
In this week’s Top 500 update, a Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher with extremely encouraging early-season bat-missing metrics.
Plus, a St. Louis Cardinals veteran who can help fantasy managers at a variety of different positions, and has been making plenty of loud contact.
As well as more on an underrated Yankees hitter who is very much worth acquiring via waivers or via trade (in the right deal) in fantasy leagues.
All that and more after this week’s Top 500 update.
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Brendan Donovan (#201, 41 trade value).
If you’re looking for one of fantasy’s more underrated fantasy hitters, look no further than the St. Louis Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan.
Donovan entered play on Thursday batting .331 with a .386 on-base percentage, a .468 slugging percentage, an .854 OPS, three home runs and three stolen bases. All that is good.
What’s even better is how the 28-year-old is doing it. Sure, he won’t overwhelm with home run production (Donovan’s 7.9% barrel rate this season would be a career high) numbers, but he’s been among the most difficult batters in the league to strike out so far this season.
He ranks in the 96th percentile in strikeout rate (9.7%) and in the 98th percentile in whiff rate (11.5%). Probably unsurprisingly, Donovan’s xwOBA (.412, 95th percentile) and xBA (.349, 100th percentile) are both decidedly elite.
And while Donovan’s home run production might not be that same level of elite, just because he isn’t slugging home runs on a regular basis and amassing barrels doesn’t mean he isn’t making loud contact.
Donovan’s .431 xwOBAcon ranks among the top 50 qualified batters in the sport. Due to statistical ties, only 40 batters have a higher xwOBAcon. Donovan’s xwOBAcon is also just percentage points away from Kyle Tucker (.435), Luis Robert Jr. (.437) and teammate Willson Contreras’ (.438) respective xwOBAcon numbers so far.
In short, the veteran’s ability to make regular loud contact, combined with making near-constant contact at the plate, gives him intriguing fantasy upside.
Add in fantasy eligibility at second base, third base, shortstop and in the outfield in most fantasy leagues, and Donovan can be a potential impact player for most all fantasy teams, regardless of roster construction or league size.
Tony Gonsolin (#188, 41 trade value).
We probably need to be talking about how good Tony Gonsolin has looked early this season, particularly from a bat-missing standpoint.
The veteran starter has enjoyed success before. He logged a 27.1% strikeout rate in 55.2 innings in 2021 and registered a 2.14 ERA and a 3.28 FIP in 130.1 innings (24 starts) in 2022.
Due in part to the Dodgers consistently high-powered lineup, Gonsolin has rattled off 35 pitcher wins in 81 appearances (73 starts) since making his Major League debut in 2019.
Elsewhere, he’s seen his whiff rate finish between 27% and 30% three different times from 2020 through 2022. For reference, his percentile rankings for whiff rate in those seasons were 69th (29.9%, 2020), 76th (29.9%, 2021) and 61st (27.2%, 2022) respectively.
So that’s all of that. And while Gonsolin has made just two starts in the Majors this year, it’s hard to ignore the numbers he’s posted so far.
Tony Gonsolin on April 30:
6.0 innings pitched
77 pitches
17 swings and misses
Nine strikeouts
Six hits, three earned runs and one home run allowed
43% CSW rate
Tony Gonsolin on May 6:
5.0 innings pitched
82 pitches
18 swings and misses
Eight strikeouts
Four hits, two earned runs, two walks and one home run allowed
33% CSW rate
The CSW rates there are fantasy ace-level stuff. The swings and misses certainly are as well. And while it’s true that both starts were against a Miami Marlins team that entered play Thursday with the league’s fourth-highest strikeout rate as a team (23.5%), this type of bat-missing ability paired with the Dodgers lineup could lead to an impact fantasy season.
If you haven’t already, go add Tony Gonsolin if he’s available via waivers.
Trent Grisham (#213, 41 trade value).
Trent Grisham has hit below .200 in each of the past three seasons. His on-base percentage has eclipsed the .310 mark once during that span and has been below .300 twice in a full season.
In other words, some fantasy managers might be skeptical of the outfielder’s recent run of form at the plate.
Grisham is batting .292 with a .376 on-base percentage, 10 home runs, a 10.9% walk rate and an 18.8% strikeout rate in 101 plate appearances. His wRC+ is a staggering 87% better than league average.
And yes, it’s still early. And yes, a 187 wRC+ probably isn’t going to be sustainable.
But, in terms of Grisham maintaining decidedly above-average production and fantasy production the rest of the way? That looks very much sustainable.
The obvious one here is that fewer strikeouts are helping Grisham produce more. And that’s partly true. In his career, Grisham has rarely come close to posting this low of a strikeout rate in a full season.
Trent Grisham K% By Season:
2019: 26.2 K%, 183 plate appearances
2020: 25.4 K%, 252 plate appearances
2021: 22.6 K%, 527 plate appearances
2022: 28.6 K%, 524 plate appearances
2023: 27.7 K%, 555 plate appearances
2024: 27.3 K%, 209 plate appearances
2025: 18.8 K%, 101 plate appearances
But really, it’s the combination of the fewer strikeouts with decidedly more loud contact. Grisham set a new personal best with a 46.4% hard-hit rate in 2024, and he’s upped that to 48.6% this season. Furthermore, his xwOBAcon is up to a .462 number that is not only in the top 40 league wide among batters with at least 100 plate appearances, but it’s also significantly better than what Grisham has done recently.
2019: .374 xwOBAcon
2020: .449 xwOBAcon
2021: .351 xwOBAcon
2022: .361 xwOBAcon
2023: .385 xwOBAcon
2024: .367 xwOBAcon
2025: .462 xwOBAcon
Grisham has always posted fairly elite chase rate numbers in his career as well – his chase rate has three times been in the 93rd percentile or higher in his career – so this decrease in strikeouts and increase in loud contact is potentially notable.
And just circling back to that xwOBAcon number briefly? Here is a list of hitters with a lower xwOBAcon than Grisham so far, minimum 100 plate appearances:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Kerry Carpenter
Teoscar Hernandez
Riley Greene
Will Smith
Willson Contreras
Luis Robert Jr.
Kyle Tucker
Bryce Harper
Bobby Witt Jr.
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially, if you’re having to cut someone, it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
New Weekly Column Alert! (Check out Week 1’s column for free!)
League Winners Week 7: You'll Want To Trade For This Starter, Plus a Breakout Slugger and Two Versatile Fantasy Hitters
In this week’s League winners, a starting pitcher in the midst of a breakout season who is both flying under the radar and missing bats at an elite rate.
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The Most Recent 50 Relievers Of Note:
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