Fantasy Baseball 2025 Redraft Top 500 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.04
More on Justin Turner joining the Cubs and Lucas Sims' reported deal with the Nationals.
Thanks to the Cubs and Dodgers, Spring Training games are back. And while games have officially started, that hasn’t slowed down free-agent signings that could have an impact on redraft leagues this season.
As it happens, one of those free agent signings involves the Cubs and could notably alter the 2025 fantasy ceiling of not only one of Chicago’s best young hitters but also the fantasy ceiling of an early, potential 2025 league winner.
More on that, plus a reported bullpen move after the rankings updates.
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Justin Turner (#322, 15 trade value).
The win-now Chicago Cubs signed veteran infielder Justin Turner on Thursday, making things a bit more crowded for rookie infielder Matt Shaw to see the lion’s share of the starts at third base this season in Chicago.
Of course, Shaw might still be the full-time starter from Opening Day onwards, but Turner’s arrival complicates things somewhat.
Turner hit .259 with a .354 on-base percentage and 11 home runs in 539 plate appearances last season split between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners. His wRC+ (117) was at least 15% above league average for the 11th-straight year, though Turner’s barrel rate (4.6%) finished in the 16th percentile league-wide and was his lowest in the Statcast era.
Just what kind of role Turner plays in Chicago over the course of the 2025 season remains to be seen. He’s played across most of the infield before, seeing time at both infield corners and at second base in recent seasons.
It’s possible he could form some sort of platoon with Michael Busch at first base, but really, the Cubs are pretty set at first (with Busch) and second (with Nico Hoerner).
The National League Central club also has Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker from left to right in the outfield with Seiya Suzuki also likely to start full-time, whether as a corner outfielder or at designated hitter.
So yeah, that leaves… checks notes … third base.
Third base where Matt Shaw looks like a potential fantasy league winner if he can see regular plate appearances for the entirety of the year hitting in a reasonably deep lineup around all the aforementioned hitters.
Of course, that’s still possible and maybe Turner is only around to play a complimentary, bench role.
Still, this makes Shaw’s pathway to fantasy prominence as a rookie more crowded and less cut and dry.
He’s still someone to take a flier on late in drafts (particularly if there’s an injury elsewhere on the roster between now and Opening Day) and the ceiling remains there. However, it’s just much less of a surefire thing that he gets the chance to reach that fantasy ceiling with regular plate appearances for the bulk of a season, particularly if the Cubs turn to Turner for any stretch that Shaw struggles.
It’s a decidedly win-now move by the Cubs that at worst gives them some insurance at third base in case Shaw experiences some struggles, but it’s decidedly less ideal for fantasy managers (regardless of who starts), especially considering Turner is likely only to provide above-average production in one category (on-base percentage) if he’s playing anything close to a significant role.
Lucas Sims (#490, 5 trade value).
Free agent Lucas Sims has signed with the Washington Nationals.
Sims pitched to a 4.38 ERA and a 5.23 FIP in 58 appearances spanning 49.1 innings of work last season split between the Cincinnati Reds and Boston Red Sox. The right-hander logged a pitcher win, a save and 16 holds. He struck out 49 batters while allowing 30 walks and eight home runs.
It was notably a down year for Sims, who saw his strikeouts per nine-inning rate drop below double digits. In each of his previous three seasons with at least 40 innings, he’d cleared that mark rather easily with 11.93 strikeouts per nine innings in 43 innings in 2019, 14.55 in 47 innings in 2021 and 10.62 in 61 innings last season.
Using the same innings parameters, his 5.23 FIP was his highest by nearly half of a run.
The 30-year-old did struggle to limit walks, with a 14.0% walk rate that was in the first percentile league-wide. His barrel rate (9.7%, 14th percentile) and ground ball rate (28.4%, first percentile) were similarly unencouraging, though Sims was rather good at limiting hard contact. His 31.3% hard-hit rate finished in the 95th percentile.
It was the second straight year his hard-hit rate finished in the 90th percentile or better.
Sims previously logged three saves in 2023 and seven in 2021. How he fits into the Nationals’ late-inning mix isn’t exactly clear yet.
Washington traded the team’s best reliever (Robert Garcia) to Texas in the Nathaniel Lowe deal. Garcia paced all Nats relievers with a 1.5 fWAR in 59.2 innings last season. Derek Law was next closest at 1.1, with Dylan Floro (who departed as a free agent) third at 1.0.
Hunter Harvey (0.9 fWAR in 45 innings) was fourth on that list but was traded during the 2024 regular season.
Kyle Finnegan, who recorded 38 of Washington’s 40 saves last season, remains a free agent.
Law, Jorge Lopez (2.89 ERA, 3.94 FIP in 53 innings last season) and Jose A. Ferrer (3.38 ERA and a 2.76 FIP in 32 innings last season) look like the favorites for saves, but there isn’t a clear front-runner, at least on paper from the outside looking in. Sims could play some sort of high-leverage role as well. This could very well end up being a situation to avoid for fantasy managers in that it might turn into a committee. Something to watch in the coming weeks.
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially if you’re having to cut someone it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
Additional Reading
Recent rankings:
Last week’s breakdown, including a look at Alex Bregman’s fantasy fit with the Boston Red Sox plus more on Nick Pivetta signing with the San Diego Padres.
This week’s dynasty update features a look at Joc Pederson and the potential impact of new position eligibility, the Arizona Diamondbacks infield in general plus more on Los Angeles Angels second baseman Christian Moore.
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