Fantasy Baseball 2025 Redraft Top 500 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.06
The one with one of the most underrated fantasy starters.
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So without further ado, let’s dive into this week’s rankings and analysis. It’s (inadvertently) a very pitching heavy column, featuring one of the sport’s most underrated fantasy starters.
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Bailey Ober (#78, 83 trade value).
Bailey Ober remains an extremely underrated fantasy starting pitcher. Sure, he’ll likely be drafted somewhere in the first half of drafts, but he remains decidedly underrated in the quality he brings to the table.
Since the start of 2023 among pitchers with at least 300 innings of work, Ober is one of just 27 starters with a FIP south of the 4.00 mark.
Among the same group of pitchers (starters with at least 300 innings pitched since the start of 2023), Ober has the 10th-highest strikeout rate (26.2%), the sixth-lowest walk rate (5.6%) and the fourth-lowest hard-hit rate. He also has 20 pitcher wins during that span in 323 innings and 57 starts.
Last season, the 29-year-old right-hander pitched to a 3.98 ERA and a 3.82 FIP in 178.2 innings of work, striking out 9.62 batters per nine innings while scattering 2.17 walks and 1.36 home runs per nine innings. His strikeout rate and walk rate finished at 26.9% and 6.1% respectively.
Though if you take out some unideal innings against the Kansas City Royals, a team that’s seemingly had Ober’s number and have accounted for some of his worst starts in the Majors (the veteran starter has given up six or more earned runs in a start four times in his career – three of those four times were versus Kansas City) Ober’s ERA and FIP drop to 3.54 and 3.51 respectively against every other team.
Bailey Ober Against Teams Not Named The Royals In 2024:
(And where those numbers would’ve ranked among qualified starting pitchers)
165.1 innings pitched, .239 BABIP
27.6 K% (tied for ninth)
6.5 BB% (tied for 16th-lowest)
21.1 K-BB% (tied for eighth)
0.96 WHIP (tied for third-lowest)
3.54 ERA (tied for 22nd)
3.51 FIP (tied for 16th)
The elite strikeout to walk numbers and such a low WHIP give him an incredibly stable fantasy floor with the upside for more. Don’t be surprised if Ober finishes as a top-15 fantasy starter in 2025, or at the very least something very close to that.
Just don’t start him when he pitches against the Royals.
Justin Lawrence (#498, five trade value) and a few other Pirates relievers.
After turning in a quality two-season run as a late-inning reliever for the Colorado Rockies from 2022 to 2023, Justin Lawrence struggled mightily in 2024.
Justin Lawrence Splits By Season:
2022: 42.2 innings pitched, 10.13 K/9, 4.64 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9, 5.70 ERA, 3.39 FIP, three pitcher wins, one save, seven holds.
2023: 75 innings pitched, 9.36 K/9, 4.32 BB/9, 0.60 HR/9, 3.72 ERA 3.76 FIP, four pitcher wins, 11 saves, 11 holds.
2024: 59.2 innings pitched, 6.79 K/9, 4.98 BB/9, 1.36 HR/9, 6.49 ERA, 5.63 FIP, four pitcher wins, two saves, five holds.
Lawrence just struggled on the mound from a results standpoint. There’s no way around it. But he’s found success in the past before and is very much worth keeping an eye on here in the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen, a team who he recently joined via waivers.
Because just like Lawrence, Pirates closer David Bednar struggled mightily in 2024.
Bednar logged a 10.7% walk rate, a 5.77 ERA and a 4.80 FIP in 62 appearances spanning 57.2 innings of work, blowing seven saves in the process. The veteran still looks likely to see most of the save chances in Pittsburgh once again, but if his struggles continue, it’s worth keeping an eye on some of the Pirates’ setup relievers as potential closing options. Lawrence could be one of them if he rediscovers his past form (it is worth noting that for as much as he struggled mightily with missing bats and allowing walks, the 30-year-old still finished in the 90th percentile with a 52.6% ground ball rate).
Dennis Santana (29.1 K%, 2.44 FIP in 44.1 innings with Pittsburgh last season), Carmen Mlodzinski (3.38 ERA, 3.25 FIP in 50.2 innings) and Colin Holderman (3.16 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 51.1 innings) are three other names to keep an eye on.
Jose Quintana (#306, 16 trade value).
The Milwaukee Brewers made a rotation addition this week in veteran starter Jose Quintana.
Quintana pitched to a 3.75 ERA and a 4.56 FIP in 31 starts spanning 170.1 innings of work for the New York Mets last season. It was his third straight season he logged an ERA over 4.00, though 2024 marked just the second time since 2018 that his FIP finished above the 4.00 mark.
And while Quintana could still be a useful streaming option in the right matchups, his move to Milwaukee isn’t exactly ideal for his fantasy prospects. The veteran allowed the highest home runs per nine innings rate (1.16) that he’s allowed in a full season since 2018. And now he’s going to be pitching half of his games in Milwaukee.
In fairness, Quintana owns a 3.90 career ERA in 67 lifetime innings at American Family Field, allowing seven home runs in the process. But, the ballpark has the fifth-highest home run park factor, per Statcast data, in the last three years.
Furthermore, the veteran’s expected home run number by park in the Statcast era – since 2015 – is actually 10 home runs higher in Milwaukee than his actual home run tally since 2015. If you’re looking for innings at the end of drafts in a deeper league with 14 or more teams, Quintana could be worth a look, otherwise you might be better off looking elsewhere for fantasy rotation options.
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially, if you’re having to cut someone, it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
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