Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Top 700 Rankings and Trade Value Chart Version 2.70
More on Kazuma Okamoto's encouraging start and why Davis Martin's effectiveness looks sustainable. Plus notes on Max Clark and Franklin Arias.
New this week, we’re looking at Toronto Blue Jays slugger Kazuma Okamoto’s start to the season. There’s been a lot to like about the power production and the potential sustainability of said power production.
Plus, why Chicago White Sox starter Davis Martin’s ace-like production doesn’t look like a fluke and notes on Tigers prospect Max Clark and Red Sox prospect Franklin Arias.
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Kazuma Okamoto (#262, 32 trade value).
The Toronto Blue Jays have struggled to score runs. Okamoto is also striking out 31.9% of the time with a 99 wRC+ so far. But none of those facts should dissuade you from the infielder’s significant power potential.
Because the 29-year-old has very much hit the ground running in that regard.
Through 210 plate appearances as of the start of play this week, the infielder was sporting a 14.9% barrel rate and a 52.9% hard-hit rate, not to mention a .444 xwOBAcon. The first two numbers ranked in the 89th and 95th percentiles, respectively, league-wide.
To give you a sense so far, that’s a higher barrel rate than Corbin Carroll, Bryce Harper, Pete Alonso, Will Smith, Junior Caminero and Riley Greene and a higher hard-hit rate than just all but 12 other qualified batters.
Among those with a lower hard-hit rate are Jordan Walker, Elly De La Cruz, Max Muncy, Yordan Alvarez, Greene, Matt Olson and Kyle Schwarber.
And while the strikeout rate and 33.3% whiff rate could certainly be better for the Blue Jays slugger, he’s helped offset both with quality chase rate (25.4%) and walk rate (10.5%) numbers. Numbers that particularly help his fantasy floor in leagues where on-base percentage is part of the scoring.
Long term, Okamoto has a few other things going for him in addition to the power-hitting numbers. Or rather, more specifically, fantasy factors that look significantly better on paper in conjunction with those power numbers.
One is fantasy eligibility at the infield corners, which should maintain in most formats heading into next year, so long as Okamoto gets a few more appearances at first base.
The other is the fact that he’ll get to hit near Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in Toronto’s lineup moving forward, especially with Bo Bichette now a member of the New York Mets and George Springer a free agent after the 2026 season (per Spotrac).
Overall, the 29-year-old is batting .214 with a .295 on-base percentage, a .701 OPS and 10 home runs this season. But if he keeps making this type of loud contact, those numbers should improve in time.
Still, it’s been an encouraging start to Okamoto’s time in the Majors. Don’t be discouraged by the low batting average.
Davis Martin (#267, 32 trade value).
A key part of the Chicago White Sox’s surprising start, Davis Martin has quickly and quietly become an ace for the American League Central club.
There’s obviously plenty of season left, but there’s a lot to like about what he’s done so far.
The 29-year-old has already tied last season’s pitcher win total (seven) in his first 10 starts (61.2 innings thanks in part to a 2.04 ERA.
The ERA is obviously excellent Martin’s 2.29 FIP is arguably more notable. Boh run prevention numbers are so strong due to some superb strikeout and walk numbers. The right-hander ranks in the 82nd percentile league-wide with a 27.4% strikeout rate and the 95th percentile in walk rate with a 5.0% number.
He’s also, for reference, sporting quality chase rate (35.4%, 88th percentile) and whiff rate (28.0%, 69th percentile) numbers, thanks in part to a six-pitch mix that features a slider (54.5%) and curveball (40.0%), both logging strong whiff rates. For the season, in fact, just one of Martin’s six pitches has an xwOBA against north of the .330 mark.
Davis Martin Pitches This Season:
Four-Seamer: 25.5% usage rate, .310 xwOBA, 29.7% whiff rate
Changeup: 17.3% usage rate, .330 xwOBA, 16.5% whiff rate
Sinker: 16.0% usage rate, .314 xwOBA, 7.5% whiff rate
Slider: 15.6% usage rate, .177 xwOBA, 54.5% whiff rate
Cutter: 14.0% usage rate, .386 xwOBA, 27.3% whiff rate
Curveball: 11.6% usage rate, .270 xwOBA, 40.0% whiff rate
Some might think the ERA might be unsustainable or flukey given that just last year Martin had a 4.64 FIP and the fact that his lifetime FIP is still 4.05.
Still, if he keeps missing bats and limiting walks like this, a low ERA is going to follow.
Looking back at the last five seasons, among qualified pitchers, 32 times has a pitcher sported a walk rate of 5.0% or lower in a season.
Among the instances in which a starter logged a walk rate of 5.0%, there were six instances in which a starter also logged a strikeout rate of 27.0% or higher.
The highest ERA of the group? That was Kevin Gausman’s 3.35 ERA in 2022. The other qualified starting pitchers to achieve the feat? Tarik Skubal (twice), Justin Verlander, Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo. Pretty good company.
Keep Martin as an integral part of your fantasy rotation moving forward if he’s on your team. If he’s not, now might be the time to try and work out a trade.
Prospect Notes:
Franklin Arias: Arias’ hit tool has always stood out, but now the power is starting to show up in a significant way, which is, well, significant.
Obviously, take minor league production with a grain of salt, but the 20-year-old is slugging .662 with 11 home runs and a .316 ISO in 154 plate appearances with Boston’s Double-A affiliate. He previously made his Double-A debut last year with 48 plate appearances at the level last season. As far as prospect developments go, this is potentially (again) very significant.
Max Clark: When the Tigers call up Clark remains to be seen. My guess, speculatively speaking, is that with their current struggles at the moment, they might not want to call him up until they can turn things around a bit. Or perhaps at some point after Tarik Skubal is back from the injured list. Either way, it’s been an encouraging recent stretch for the 21-year-old, who is playing at Triple-A for the first time.
He’s hitting .268 with a .340 on-base percentage, two home runs, 11 stolen bases and a 97 wRC+, but that production has included a recent cold stretch at the plate.
The outfielder looked like an early promotion candidate, hitting .351 with a home run and as many walks (10) as strikeouts in his first 89 Triple-A plate appearances.
Then from April 21 through May 7, he batted just .140 with a 14 wRC+. Again, take minor league numbers with a grain of salt (Clark also had just a 19.6% strikeout rate against a .179 BABIP during that stretch, for what it’s worth).
Still, the fact that he’s bounced back from that stretch is significant, even if the specifics of his batting average or OPS during that following stretch might not be as significant.
For reference, Clark is batting .268 with a .328 on-base percentage, a .429 slugging percentage, a .161 ISO and a 102 wRC+ from May 8 onwards.
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