Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Top 700 Rankings & Trade Value Version 2.13
A fantasy ace, a front line fantasy starter and two promising young hitters.
New this week, we’ve seen some promising developments for a number of players.
And while one week of data isn’t going to move the needle too much in dynasty, said data when viewed in the context of the season can be notable, especially if it further supports positive statistical trends from the season’s first few weeks.
We’ve got a lot to get to in that regard, including a fantasy (and real-life) ace emerging, a teammate of said ace who looks like an under-the-radar, frontline fantasy starter plus more on a few intriguing young hitters making plenty of loud contact early
All that and more after the rankings (which themselves have seen plenty of movement).
(A quick note, if you’re having trouble reading the table in full in the Substack app, it can be viewed in full either in the email or in a web browser.)
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Gabriel Arias (#374, 29 trade value).
Cleveland’s offseason trade of Andres Gimenez has opened up significant playing time for Gabriel Arias.
A well-regarded prospect, the 25-year-old Arias has stepped in at second base. He’s hitting .267 with a .333 on-base percentage and three home runs in 51 plate appearances to start the year. He’s also sporting a 137 wRC+ while striking out 29.4% of the time. His walk rate? 7.8%.
And while it’s still a small sample size for the infielder, particularly where dynasty is concerned – Arias also entered play on Monday in the first percentile in whiff rate, the 21st percentile in chase rate and the 18th percentile in strikeout rate – there’s a lot to like about the infielder’s numbers when he does make contact.
There’s a 9.7% barrel rate which is good. A 109.7 MPH max exit velocity isn’t bad. A 48.4% hard-hit rate might be even better. But it’s the pairing of a .442 xwOBAcon and a 76.5 MPH bat speed (which ranks in the 93rd percentile) that point to plenty of promise long-term.
If Arias can continue to do that, it’s not hard to imagine him hitting in the middle of the Cleveland lineup long-term alongside Jose Ramirez.
Drew Rasmussen (#179, 36 trade value).
Just like with Arias, it’s early with Rasmussen’s data and conclusions you can draw from it. It might be even earlier considering Rasmussen has made just the three starts so far.
But, the 29-year-old sure looks back as a borderline top-25 fantasy starter now and moving forward.
Rasmussen missed time in 2023 after undergoing an internal brace procedure on his elbow. That limited him to eight starts that season. The veteran made 16 appearances last season, though that was largely in shorter stints out of the bullpen or as an opener.
The right-hander has generally always been decidedly above-average when on the mound, but now fully healthy he’s a borderline frontline fantasy starter due to his ability to limit walks and generate swings and misses.
Drew Rasmussen By Season:
2022: 28 starts, 146 IP, 2.84 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 21.4 K%, 5.3 BB%
2023: Eight starts, 44.2 IP, 2.62 ERA, 2.54 FIP, 26.6 K%, 6.2 BB%
2024: Four starts (16 total appearances), 28.2 IP, 2.83 ERA, 1.35 FIP, 30.2 K%, 5.2 BB%
2025: Three starts, 15 IP, 0.60 ERA, 1.40 FIP, 27.8 K%, 3.7 BB%
If someone in your league is still skeptical of Rasmussen, well, skeptical of him being a frontline fantasy starter, whether it be the recent innings totals or concern about not having an overwhelming number of recent innings track record wise, he’s an ideal trade target. Particularly if you’re in win-now (which, spoilers, always try and win aggressively with an eye on the future. They’re not mutually exclusive things. Both and.) Rasmussen is an ideal trade target. At worst, he’s a top 30 fantasy starter in each of the next four or five years, with the upside for more.
Shane Baz (#36, 69 trade value).
Sticking with Tampa Bay, all the promise Shane Baz showed when he was a top prospect and all the promise he flashed early in his career. All of that pointed towards him eventually being an ace, or rather having the potential to be an ace.
If Baz’s first three starts in 2025 are any indication, he’s an ace now.
The 26-year-old has pitched to a 1.42 ERA and a 2.19 FIP in three starts spanning 19 innings of work. In the process he’s struck out 27 batters while scattering four walks, three earned runs and two home runs.
He’s sitting in the 95th percentile league-wide with a 38% strikeout rate so far and has a rather small 5.6% walk rate. The 25-year-old is also in the 90th percentile or better in xERA (1.85, 92nd percentile), xBA (.165, 94th percentile) and average fastball velocity (97 MPH, 90th percentile). He’s logged a CSW rate of 35% or better in two of his three starts and has topped the double-digit strikeout mark twice.
He’s an ace.
Unfortunately, given the promise he showed as a prospect and his early-season performance, it might be easier said than done to acquire Baz via trade, but if you can, he has the chance to lead a fantasy rotation for the better part of the next decade.
Ben Rice (#264, 32 trade value).
Ben Rice’s early-season production isn’t overly surprising. He’s hitting .294 with a .410 on-base percentage, five home runs and a pair of stolen bases in 61 plate appearances. Playing primarily first base and designated hitter, the 26-year-old is off to as an ideal of a start as you could ask for.
He ranks in the 94th percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel rate, average exit velocity, chase rate and walk rate. The barrel rate (27.8%) and hard-hit rate (66.7%) both rank in the 100th percentile.
It’s not overly surprising, at least het loud contact isn’t, considering the slugger logged a 15.6% barrel rate and a .426 xwOBAcon in a 178 plate appearances last season.
Rice probably isn’t going to flirt with a .500 xwOBA (it was .491 as of the start of play on Tuesday) but the strong start certainly doesn’t hurt his fantasy ceiling long-term.
Of course, it’s still a tiny sample size, but Rice has also hit either first or second in each of his last eight starts. Generally speaking, if a player is collecting a bunch of walks and barrels and gets to hit in front of Aaron Judge on a regular basis, the fantasy production is going to be somewhere between very good and elite.
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially, if you’re having to cut someone, it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
Also a quick note on prospects:
Proximity matters. Upside is obviously king here, but proximity to the Majors matters here as well with prospects, at least from a fantasy standpoint. It can be a bit of a tie-breaker with prospects with similar upside but at different minor league levels. Furthermore, the farther away a prospect is from the Majors, the more it impacts their fantasy trade value.
Of course, that’s not going to have much of a difference with elite prospects in the low minors like Ethan Salas or Max Clark, but it’s why some prospects who aren’t necessarily in the upper echelon of fantasy prospects, may have a lower trade value number in dynasty formats than a lower ceiling player already in the Majors who is guaranteed to provide MLB (and fantasy) production at least in the coming years.
New Weekly Column Alert! (Check out Week 1’s column for free!) Really excited about this
League Winners Week 1: Three Potential (Future) Aces
Welcome to League Winners! A new weekly, in-season column that I’m really excited to debut.
